SEB Analyst Warns of Dwindling GDP Growth ({{commentsTotal}})

Ruta Arumäe Source: Photo: Postimees/Scanpix
Business
Business

SEB analyst Ruta Arumäe said this year's economic growth could end up being even lower than the bank had forecast three weeks ago in light of disappointing first quarter results.

SEB had revised its previous 2013 GDP growth forecast of 3.7 percent down to 3.3 percent. But the annual figure could turn out to be even lower, Arumäe said, despite a minor positive revision today of first quarter results, bumped up a tenth of a percentage point to 1.1 percent.

"Such is the general economic outlook - growth is very inconsistent across sectors and volatile from quarter to quarter," Arumäe said.

The first quarter was put back by a lagging transport sector, as well as an expected decline in construction and a one-off impact from excise taxes - without which growth may have been at 2 percent, Arumäe said. Nor could private investments compensate for a scheduled decrease in public sector investments.

Nevertheless, domestic consumption and exports were strong. Those two factors could help boost second quarter growth results to at least 2 percent, Arumäe said.

The OECD recently downgraded its 2013 growth forecast for Estonia from 3.7 to 1.5 percent.



{{c.alias}}
{{c.createdMoment}}
{{c.body}}
{{cc.alias}}
{{cc.createdMoment}}
+{{cc.replyToName}} {{cc.body}}
No comments yet.
Logged in as {{user.alias}}. Log out
Login failed

Register user/reset password

Name needs to be fewer than 32 characters long
Comment needs to be fewer than 600 characters long
{{comment.captcha.word.answer}}

news.err.ee

Opinion
Independence Day: Estonia’s way into the future isn’t a race

There is a lack of connection between the Estonian state, and the people who live here. While it expects a lot of the state, Estonian society doesn’t seem ready to contribute, writes Viktor Trasberg.

Lotman: Security academy would be crucial Estonian identity point in Narva

In an opinion piece published by Eesti Päevaleht, Tallinn University professor Mihhail Lotman found it important to overcome the mental barrier separating Ida-Viru County from the rest of Estonia.