Commenting on Mart Laar's statement on Monday, wherein the former PM said his party, IRL, should consider leaving the government coalition, Parliament's opposition parties mostly agreed that they do not expect the coalition to fall apart anytime soon.
The head of the Center Party, Edgar Savisaar, said Laar was trying to mobilize IRL's voters and that his plan is to take the coalition to the breaking point, but not one step further.
Savisaar speculated that the letter could also be the result of a secret agreement between IRL and its coalition partner, the Reform Party.
“The agreement could manifest in IRL saying they intend to leave, which would be a dramatic move. Ansip will then say he will seek to build a new coalition, but in reality nothing would happen before November,” Savisaar said in a press release today.
Savisaar predicted that, after the October local elections, Ansip would then admit to failing in his quest to find a new coalition partner, and the duo would continue.
Social Democrat MP Eiki Nestor told Delfi today, that IRL would have nowhere to go if it left the coalition.
“No government is eternal and this one will also end at some point, but I do not believe that it is a question of weeks, because IRL doesn't have anywhere to go,” Nestor said.
“However, the Reform Party could decide that a change is in order. In that case it would be wiser for IRL to do a preemptive strike and leave on 'ethical' grounds,” said Nestor.
Sven Mikser, Chairman of the Social Democrats, told ERR radio that he also believes the coalition will stay intact as IRL has no pleasant options if the coalition door closes to them.
Crunching the numbers
The Reform Party has 33 seats in Parliament, IRL 23, the Center Party 21 and the Social Democrats 19. Additionally, a five-strong group of ex-Center Party MPs have aligned themselves with the Social Democrats.
The numbers reveal that either the Center Party or the Social Democrats could, in theory, replace IRL in a majority government.
The three smaller parties could, also in theory, forge a blue-green-red alliance, but that is unlikely as both the Social Democrats and IRL have said they are unlikely to cooperate with the Center Party.
The October local elections could give rise to a yellow-red-blue coalition (Reform, SD, IRL) in Tallinn, as it is presently far from certain that the Center Party will retain its majority in the city council.
The next parliamentary elections will take place in 2015.