Two political scientists have concluded that supporters of citizen election coalitions and other candidates who did not gain an entrée to Tallinn City Council essentially gave the Center Party three of their seats.
Kristjan Vassil, also known as the developer of ERR's Election Compass interface, and Mihkel Solvak did the math, reapportioning the "lost votes" (Prime Minister Andrus Ansip's expression) given to coalitions between the major parties.
There had been debate over whether the coalitions that did not pass the 5 percent threshold actually helped the incumbent, Center, or not. Ansip termed the votes "lost" after Sunday's election, prompting a strong rebuttal from the strongest of the coalitions, Free Citizen of Tallinn.
"The results show that if - instead of the election coalitions, independent candidates and the Conservative People's Party - people had voted for one of the three major opposition parties, the incumbent Center Party would have received three fewer seats," the two political scientists wrote in Vassil's blog.
However, the 43 seats that Center would have received would still constitute an absolute majority.
A total of 16,717 votes were cast for coalitions, single candidates and the marginal Conservative People's Party, representing 7.65 percent of all valid votes.
The observers noted that the same contingent received 16.5 percent of the popular vote in Tartu.