The editor of the foreign policy magazine DIplomaatia, Kaarel Kaas, said that Russia has likely "already intervened" in Ukraine behind the scenes and the true events are still only unfolding.
Kaas said on ETV that while Russia could easily be rhetorically more aggressive and take more political action, Moscow has understood that this would not serve its interests.
"A, it would escalate the situation even more, and B, it would provide more grist for the mill of those who say that it is a standoff between the European minded part of Ukraine and Russian influence, a view that Russia is trying to discredit," Kaas said.
Kaas said there was the possibility that Russia would intervene more forcefully after the Olympic Games. But the Olympics were only one reason for not doing so.
"There's more than a little truth in the fact that Russia has lost its head momentarily. Moscow doesn't know which course to take, how to respond to the riots unleashed two weeks ago. Actually, that reaction was not something either Yanukovych or Putin expected, maybe not even the Ukrainian people."
Kaas said that Russia was very actively involved in Ukraine under the radar.
"I'd be cautious with the conjecture that the game is over in Kyiv or the final outcome is known. It isn't. I think we'll still see quite a few more acts."
"Actually, I'm quite sure that Russia has actively intervened already now," he said. "I would be surprised if Russian special services had not provided assistance to their Ukrainian colleagues for suppressing the demonstrations in a covert manner, which is the disappearance of activists from the hospital, and finding them in the forest, sometimes alive, sometimes dead."