MoF Halves 2014 Growth Forecast ({{commentsTotal}})


The Ministry of Finance has released its latest economic forecast, which is considerably lower than the previous one but did not second a recent sharp reassessment from one commercial bank. 

In early September, the institution said the economy would grow 3.6 percent, but the latest estimate is just 2 percent.

Minister of Finance Jürgen Ligi said that there were many variables, a large one being developments in Russia and Ukraine.

The Estonian economy grew 0.8 percent last year.

The Ministry of Finance forecast for 2014 is more conservative than most. Nordea's latest, from March 12, called for 2.8 percent. Swedbank and the Institute of Economic Research put it at 3 percent. But on March 26, SEB slashed that to just 0.5 percent.

Inflation will also decrease significantly, according to the latest projection from the ministry - prices will rise 1.4 percent compared to the original estimate of 2.7 percent. That's around half of what inflation has been in recent years.

Inflation remained quite flat in March, for the ninth straight month. Prices increased only 0.2 percent year on year.

The Ministry of Finance said growth in 2015 should be 3.5 percent.

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