If the European Parliament elections ended today, an independent reformer would be re-elected and a Russian-speaking MP who voted against an Estonian resolution condemning the invasion of Crimea could win a seat.
That's according to a monthly poill conducted by TNS Emor for ERR, which found that the Center Party had jumped to the lead with 22 percent support. That would make it the only party to get a second seat, which would be distributed to the unseated candidate with the most votes. That would either be Mihhail Stalnuhhin or Yana Toom. Stalnuhhin made the news in March when he was the only politician to vote against a resolution condemning Russia's actions in Ukraine.
All of the other parties would get one seat - the Social Democrats and Reform Party (each 19 percent), and IRL with 17 percent. Independent candidate Indek Tarand, currently an MEP, would get 15 percent single-handedly.
Besides Tarand, other popular candidates are Marju Lauristin of the Social Dems (9 percent), Edgar Savisaar of Center (9 percent), Andrus Ansip of Reform (7 percent), and Tunne Kelam of IRL (5 percent).
Savisaar has said he will not take his seat; Jüri Ratas is likely to be the second-most popular and would take the seat.
Tunne Kelam, IRL's incumbent MEP, appears deadlocked with former speaker Ene Ergma, who is issuing a strong challenge to Kelam's seat from within the party. She is also at 5 percent; Emor did not provide more detailed data.
Analysts cautioned not to read too much into the poll. IRL had a large lead in the poll last month. One scenario that is considered ruled out, however, is that two parties will get two seats each.