The deputy head of Estonian School of Diplomacy, Vahur Made, told ERR that the nuclear deal between Iran and the P5+1 group of world powers shows that Tehran wants to return to “normal countries club”. But Made was suspicious of Russian Federation's motives behind the deal.
After 20 months of negotiations, Iran agreed on a long-term nuclear deal with the US, UK, France, China, Russia and Germany on July 14. The deal will limit Iran's sensitive nuclear activities in return for the lifting of economic sanctions that have been imposed on the country.
Made believes that Iran wants to improve its image and cooperate with the West more, but he didn't rule out increasing relationship between China and Iran either.
“The most important for Tehran is a return to international oil market,” Made said, pointing out that Estonia's economy might positively gain from the lower oil prices. “Estonia should consider opening an embassy in Tehran,” he added.
But Made found it almost strange that Russia was on the same side as the United States and European Union when it comes to Iran. “Russia was consistently supportive of the US position throughout the Iran talks,” he said.
Made said that one possible explanation of Russia's cooperation is its unwillingness to become completely isolated by the West – the talks provided an opportunity to make itself useful.
Secondly, he highlighted that although Russia's oil industry might be hit by falling prices following the deal, Russia will see Iran as a possible weapons buyer for its arms industry.
“Thirdly, Russia is hoping that Iran's 'return to big stage' will bring about a regional conflict where Saudi Arabia and Israel are on the opposing side against Iran. The situation might get so tense that the West is forced to draw its attention away from Ukraine and compromise with Russia,” Made said, adding that the military conflict in the Middle East where the West and Russian Federation intervene together, cannot be ruled out.
Editor: S. Tambur