A Most Delicate Question (34)

By George von Gernet
Published: 14.06.2011 09:25

Image: Finkeltroc Studios

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Estonia is either going to participate in the world economy or it is not. So far, it seems to be still on the fence, hoping the labor problem will somehow go away or solve itself. Or praying that a call for talented youngsters to come home might pay off. 

But a gaping hole in the side of a ship can’t be patched with duct tape. At least not for long.

One estimate claims Estonia will need 6,000 IT workers over the next three years. Where will they come from?

As Jaan Männik, chairman of the Bank of Estonia, pointed out to Postimees’s Priit Pullerits in a recent interview, immigrants move from countries with low purchasing power to countries where there are jobs. The 6,000 IT workers Estonia imports, if it imports them at all, will not likely be young professionals from Sweden. They will come from the East.

"We could easily end up in a situation where Estonians are the minority [in Harjumaa]…” said Männik. “…it could happen that in local elections the Estonian people will forever lose control over who governs Tallinn."

My first thought is a scary one: that the Tallinn city government could become even less western in its composure and way of doing things.

I may be tarred and feathered for saying so, but I don't have a problem being governed by native Russian-speakers. My concern is: Do those who govern me possess a similar system of values? My fear – I hope unjustified – is that the Tallinn city government could come to even more resemble the neo-feudalistic bardak of Russia. 

But that is indeed unjustified if the workers we'd import share European values. Who would not welcome 6,000 highly-educated IT workers and their families? Young men and women who share democratic values and wish to live and work in a society that rewards them for their talent, rather than in a state which takes it away when they become too successful. 

If Estonia does choose to participate in the world economy, I hope it starts soon. Because new workers become new citizens, and anyone in the corporate world can tell you that finding a good employee takes time. Not to mention 6,000 of them.

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Comments (34)

  • avatar

    auslane

    14.06.2011 11:40

    6000 pro-Russian candidate voters, unless they congregate in one district, are unlikely to significantly change the outcome of elections. Unless I'm missing something - Knut? - the 'loss of control' is precisely the kind of fear-mongering that is not needed at this time. Some kind of fast-path yearly-extendable visa could be issued to the required IT workers, some of whom will learn Estonian out of interest anyway. And when the work dries up again in some few years time, the visa are not extended and those who wish to stay are given government assistance to pass the required language exam. I don't see it as a foregone conclusion that 'new workers become new citizens', however there does need to be action taken by the Estonian government to make it easier for the required IT workers to come and reside here.

  • avatar

    knut_albers

    14.06.2011 12:19

    I do not think that 6000 pro-Russian voters would do the change in Tallinn and for sure not accross the country, Auslane. But why they would all come from there anyway? According to Enterprise Estonia, aren't the latest new entries from South Korea, India and Vietnam (hired by Modesat Communication)?

  • Eesti mees

    14.06.2011 15:09

    I don't think Männik's argument was that 6,000 could make the change--that is simply one estimate of the current need. Männik's argument was that since Tallinn is the economic motor of Estonia, the immigrants would come to Tallinn and, long term, sway the vote there. That was how I understood it.

  • avatar

    knut_albers

    14.06.2011 17:13

    Actually you may expect from immigrants that they will become gradually more Estonian over time. Besides, why they would vote for Savisaar, the party of the poor and unskilled? Examine the electorate profile of this party in more detail. Specialists from the IT sector will be there unlikely to be determined. Programmers tend also more likely to vote for something like the Pirate Party. Fairly weighed.

  • avatar

    louiszezeran

    14.06.2011 23:08

    Is the logic that Mr von Gernet is taking: that IT specialists will come from Russia and will therefore vote for the Centre Party? Is that why Estonia has not eased its immigration laws yet? The flood from the near East?

  • karlos

    15.06.2011 04:35

    why is it so taken for granted that these immigrants MUST be russian? why are they not a natural mixture from a lot of different countries (russia being just 1 of these), just as they are in every other western nation? why so narrow minded? if Estonia really wants to involve itself in the world economy, it needs to become a little more cosmopolitan and look further for educated migrants - and yes, attempt to build the kind of country young educated professionals from sweden WANT to move to. if you get ALL your skilled migrants from one country, is it any great wonder that it feels like re-colonisation?

  • artura

    15.06.2011 08:06

    seems estonian immigrants would most likely be russian (or ukrainian or belorussian) since 1. that's where they mostly come from now and no change has been made in laws or policies to change that pattern, 2. there is already a russian language community here what can receive them and make them comfortable and it is immigration basic that immigrants go there where are family and friends, 3. estonia doesn't have a structure in the far east to process immigrants -- read about students from india trying to study at estonian universities, they must travel days and days to find a consulate to process paperwork. what are the good reasons to expect that these new 6 000 IT workers could come from the far east?

  • avatar

    knut_albers

    15.06.2011 09:12

    "what are the good reasons to expect that these new 6 000 IT workers could come from the far east?" Because the latest immigrant IT-workers are already coming from there.

  • avatar

    auslane

    15.06.2011 09:22

    @Eesti mees - but isn't that how it's supposed to work? That the government accurately represents the voting preferences of the people. And I don't think it's likely all of these - or most of these - 6000 would be Russians. Now, perhaps my perception is warped, coming from a country where if you become a citizen you have the same rights as anyone else born there, and then you are 'Australian' even if your ethnic background is Chinese, Sudanese, Greek, Estonian etc. One issue seems that to be 'Estonian' you must be of an Estonian ethnic background, or at least there is hidden prejudice that way.

  • Pro patria

    15.06.2011 16:10

    Whether Mannik's fear (that Russian-speaking, Centre-party-voting IT workers will over run Tallinn) is well-founded or not isn't really the question. What is relevant is that if Estonians believe it to be a possibility they will likely find obstacles to increased immigration. Given the country's history I could easily see its citizens opting for slower economic development (or little development at all) in exchange for an Estonian Estonia. And are the majority of what few new immigrants there are REALLY coming from the far east? Or could it just be that every time an Asian enters the country he gets interviewed in the local press? There are so many barriers to hiring Asians that I find it hard to believe that is the future of Estonian IT.

  • observer

    15.06.2011 18:07

    "Given the country's history I could easily see its citizens opting for slower economic development (or little development at all) in exchange for an Estonian Estonia." I tend to agree with this. As one commentator on some story in Russian delfi or postimees (I can't remember which) said: It doesn't matter how bad the economic situation gets and how many people leave the country, as long as the last remaining person in Estonia is an Estonian, the Estonian elite and society will deem it to be a success. Bit of an exaggeration perhaps but not so far off.

  • Roitt

    16.06.2011 10:16

    I welcome Russian immigrants before Indian immigrants. Check out reports on Indian and Chinese immigration: the growth in the size of these communities is exponential. If 6000 Indians were to come to Estonia, the flow would never stop. The average IT salary in India is 40,000€ per year. So half of Indian IT professionals would do better by moving to Estonia. Keep the Indians and Chinese out if you want anything resembling the Estonia we have now to stay same.

  • avatar

    knut_albers

    16.06.2011 11:49

    The Chinese actually do have a one child policy and the total fertility rate in India is 2.62 (coming down from 6 in the fifties).

  • Roitt

    16.06.2011 14:19

    Does not matter of current fertility rate. 1.2 billion Indians and 1.3 billion Chinese. Population may not be increasing as fast as was happening in past but these massive populations 1) can cause fundamental demographics shifts in communities very quickly (as is case in cities for example Vancouver and in entire communities in South America for example Suriname) and 2) have traditionally shown distaste for cultural adaptation and integration, with total disregard for local behavioral norms. Large-scale demographic shifts have caused havoc in countries for example UK and Germany, lets hope same does not happen in Estonia with immigrants from poorer countries without desire to adapt

  • avatar

    knut_albers

    16.06.2011 16:49

    Roitt, we are talking here about 6,000 max! Not about the whole population to settle down in Estonia. Besides, no one is forced to multiple with a Chinese/ Indian. In any case, we are talking here about Specialists to hire - they unlikely have 'child-bearing hips genes' as the, let's say, general population. But if it makes you joy to defame whole nations as 'fertilizer' with the aim to occupy new land, you're free to have that opinion. Just do not expect that you will be taken seriously with your quite racial claim that does not even withstand any facts.

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