Leaders Ponder Estonia's Future at Presidential Forum (11)

Published: 22.11.2012 18:58

Estonian President Toomas Hendrik Ilves
( Photo: Postimees/Scanpix )

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Officials, businesses and NGOs gathered for the Estonian president's annual discussion forum at Tallinn's Song Festival Grounds on Thursday.

They discussed possibilities for a sustainable Estonia, in the context of gloom from some commentators and a National Audit Office report that predicts the nation's workforce will decrease by 100,000 by 2030.

Keynote speakers included Finance Minister Jürgen Ligi, former justice minister Kaido Kama, lawyer Jüri Raidla, businessman Viljar Arakas, artist Kaido Ole and philosopher Guido Viik. Topics included democracy, national and local government, demographic and regional issues, and human capital.

In his opening speech, President Toomas Hendrik Ilves said: "In spite of our self-pity, there are some things we do especially well. I would never have guessed or dreamed that, for instance, the European Union and the US would take our IT initiatives and e-government so seriously.“

"Out of wisdom, or more likely austerity, we have built up some big systems so that, compared with many other developed countries, we spend and often fortunately waste significantly less money and time,“ Ilves said.

He noted that countries have very different models based on tradition and geopolitics. If Estonia were in Greece's shoes, based on population, Estonia would have an air force with 50 fighter jets. By contrast, he said, Estonia is half the size of the capital of Denmark, but Copenhagen does not have a military or border patrol at all.

"Is our habit of adopting models for ordering the affairs of life from other countries and those much larger than us a smart and sustainable decision?“ Ilves asked, pointing to the less-than-optimal health care system and structure of municipal government.

In 2013, the president said, there would be one young, old or sick person for every working taxpayer.

"It is of course possible to raise the retirement age and to that way keep a stable workforce, but that only has substance if the elderly stay healthy and active, and if we have work to offer the elderly that suits there skills and abilities. We can dream of Estonia's own space shuttle, nuclear submarine or organizing an Olympic Games, but we realize this is impossible,“ Ilves said.

The overarching theme of the president's speech was that people have lost sight of ideals and have veered away from nation-building. He said the status quo could not be accepted as unchangeable, touching on the recent political turmoil.

"It seems certain that a thorough revision would not do any harm to our electoral system and party operational mechanism,“ Ilves said.

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Comments (11)

  • Frank

    22.11.2012 20:49

    The key is population growth. Having babies needs to become fashionable again, this where writers and film makers can make an impact.

  • Balt

    22.11.2012 23:40

    @ Frank Agreed!

  • EinZweiDrei

    23.11.2012 14:18

    The population growth from the birth rate increase is a dire hope. In order to thrive as a successful, modern country, Estonia needs to rethink the immigration. The current 0,075% immigration rate is a pathetic measure to sustain the identity of the country.

  • ameeriklane

    23.11.2012 15:39

    It's basically too late to address the demographic problem they've been ignoring for years. So in 2030 he says the working-age population will be down by 100k. That's the same as the entire population of Estonia's 2nd-largest city (Tartu). Unless 100,000 babies are born tomorrow (so they will be 18 in 2030), this problem won't be solved with birth rate. So they'll either need to change their minds on immigration, or plan for a country in further decline.

  • Robert

    23.11.2012 15:46

    Interesting. Ives seems like a grounded person with a well rounded view. I come from Australia, and I have been here for nearly 5 months. Our countries are opposite in many ways - we are spread out, isolated, slow with IT rollout etc, and as a tiny country you have a great advantage because you can make change swiftly. You already are pronouncing yourself as IT leaders in the world, but what good is IT if everybody is sick and unable to work? Learn from the rest of the world inflated populous world who are getting so sick and the cost of Health is enormous. To combat the elderly/sick crisis, start implementing some laws around limiting the toxins / drugs / etc allowed in regular food which people eat fooling themselves it is healthy. Make Estonia leaders health, with a ban against food that is poisonous, - ie 95% of what is in all the shops here filled with preservatives, GM ingredients and white sugar in almost everything. Meats fed with hormones and drugs translates to a dopey and sick workforce with a short life span.

  • Frank

    23.11.2012 19:45

    Sure, immigration is a short term solution so long as immigration quotas are established to ensure a balanced demographic (and Russian immigration has exceeded any reasonable quota), but longer term birth rate remains the key.

  • Balt

    23.11.2012 23:41

    @ EinZweiDrei & ameeriklane Except you two are forgetting that a country like Germany for example has had large-scale immigration for the past 4 decades and that still isn't stopping it from having a population decline of 10 to 15 million over the next 50 years and one of the oldest populations in the world by mid-century. Immigration is actually not a good long term solution if people simply don't have a lot of kids. Immigration only helps the symptoms, not the underlying cause.

  • B.

    24.11.2012 10:59

    Estonia's natural population growth has been more or less stable for the last few years, the bigger problem is to prevent people from emigrating. At least compared to the situation in Latvia and Lithuania (which have both lost about 300,000 people in the last decade, both to natural causes and mass emigration) we are actually doing pretty good. Latvia and Lithuania also have larger unemployment and youth unemployment rates so they are looking at some long term issues. I agree that seeking labour immigration (especially unskilled and/or uneducated labour immigration) is not sustainable (if anything, some countries in Western Europe, like Sweden, are a good example of what not to do). Giving benefits and time off to new parents seems to have worked somewhat in helping boost the birth rate in Ukraine and Russia, perhaps Estonia should try something similar? Also, if we do go the immigration, Russia, ironically is probably the best place to look for enthusiastic labour.

  • PabloTall

    24.11.2012 13:13

    Calling for people to focus in "nation-building" is senseless since that objective has already been achieved successfully and the tasks to be faced now differ in quality and reach. Estonia is leaving that stage of its history and has now to face a less obvious and less epic phase: becoming a fully developed advanced democracy, which entails more choices on ideological issues and demands an active civil society to take charge. The "nation" is not threatened directly anymore, and trying to bring that mindset back would be counterproductive. Also, the comparison between Denmark and Greece is absurd: Greece has a strong geopolitical rivalry with a military power (Turkey) with whom she has an open conflict (Cyprus). Also, it has to ensure security in thousands of inhabited islands. Now what threats is Denmark facing in the neighbourhood? Drunken Swedes?

  • question

    24.11.2012 16:36

    "In 2013, the president said, there would be one young, old or sick person for every working taxpayer." ERR, is this actually correct or a typo? Did you mean, "In 2030"?

  • avatar

    knut_albers

    26.11.2012 13:48

    I think this is correct. The current employed workforce is slightly below 700,000, making it slightly above half of the population (the other half is underage, in pension or unable to work for different reasons). By 2030 and at current demographic trends, roughly 1 / 2.5 of the total population would work by that time (~40%). And that's an optimistic statement. It is clear that taxes will rise and social spending per capita will stagnate. Since immigration is politically unwanted, there is nothing that would change this trend until 2030, even in case the total fertility rate would be doubled by the end of next year (that would only help after 2031, when the new generation of baby boomers start pull in to join the workforce at age of 18). I am afraid Estonia will be queueing among many of other European states with a declining population, where demander exceeds significantly the suppliers. This also means, that future governments can only win elections when they increase spending (read taxes and debts) in particular at the cost of future generations. In simple mathematics it means less competitive businesses, less jobs, less motivation to found families of future generations due to high burden of liabilities and therefore lack of funding, increase of emigration and greater social tensions that fight for the cake, which can be read directly from the numbers and is already in the beginning. It is a downward spiral that most-probably will only satisfy nature lover on an already almost depopulated soil (compared to EU average).