Estonian population increases slightly in 2016, driven by immigration
According to Statistics Estonia’s initial estimates, the population of Estonia was 1,317,800 on Jan. 1 this year, which is 1,850 or 0.14% more than at the same time a year ago.
The population grew despite the number of deaths exceeding the number of births. It shrank by 1,370 from the perspective of births versus death, while it eventually increased due to migration.
Thanks to that, the population grew by 3,220 people year on year, which amounts to 0.14%. This makes 2016 the second year in a row with a net increase. The reason is that immigration was higher than both emigration and negative natural increase (births versus deaths).
More than 13,900 children were born in Estonia in 2016. With that number, births has remained at approximately the same level for five years now. Considering that the number of women of childbearing age has decreased, this could be seen as good news. Still, as Statistics Estonia stated in a press release, this is far away from “really good news” in births statistics.
15,300 deaths were recorded in 2016, which makes it the sixth year in a row with more or less the same number, varying by just about 150. As the population ages, and the number of older people increases every year, life expectancy will continue to increase.
In 2016, 9,100 people immigrated to Estonia, and 5,800 people emigrated. According to Statistics Estonia, migration statistics are the most difficult to estimate based on preliminary data, as they are supplemented with data from additional registers. Unregistered migration is added later, and follows the methodology of calculating population based on residency index.
If a person changes from resident to non-resident, it is emigration, and in the opposite case, it is immigration (if it isn’t about births or deaths). Reaching the final result is more complicated compared with other statistics and can significantly increase the statistical size of migration flows.
Emigration increases mainly due to the unregistered departure of European Union and Estonian citizens. Immigration increases mainly due to return migration of Estonian citizens, which is also not registered, as their prior leaving wasn’t registered either.
This means that compared to immigration, emigration is registered less, and therefore it presumably increased more than immigration in the revised population number.
The development of Estonia’s population—or, rather, the lack thereof—is a continuing issue for its economy, one that eight high-profile businessmen recently addressed when they made an unprecedented donation of €800,000 to Estonia’s main political parties, saying that they expected politics to do something about the problem.
Editor: Editor: Dario Cavegn