Lauri: Greek deal may never be reached
Maris Lauri, the former finance minister of Estonia and now a Reform Party MP, wrote on Tuesday that there is no final agreement on the third Greek bail-out package because the EU leaders only agreed on the conditions on which further negotiations will be based upon. Lauri also said that due to the unstable political situation in Greece, future negotiations may easily fail.
Lauri rejected claims that the Estonian Parliament will vote on the new Greek bail-out package – as reported also in foreign media – simply because the package does not exist yet.
She pointed out in her blog that before any new funding could be agreed upon, 18 Eurozone members will expect concrete steps from Greece, including four major law amendments. Greece's Parliament would be expected to pass those on Wednesday, followed by more changes the following week.
“If Greece takes these steps on Wednesday, then some Eurozone members, such as Germany, will have a parliamentary vote whether to start bail-out negotiations with Greece or not,” Lauri explained, adding that there is a possibility that the German Bundestag will not give its backing and the same might happen in some other member state which need parliamentary approval for decisions like this.
Lauri wrote that only then could the parties start negotiations over the third bail-out package, but its amount and details are still unclear. “The EU government heads have agreed on general conditions, such as the 50 billion euro asset sale fund under the EC supervision, areas where Greece needs reforms and rough estimate for the bail-out package”.
Lauri predicted that the negotiations may take weeks, by optimistic calculations. “In best case scenario, the deal will be reached in August, after which it will be up for voting in national parliaments, including in Estonia”.
But Lauri made it clear that the Greek deal might never be reached, because Greece might choose not to follow through with preliminary conditions. She also cited political instability in the country as a potential obstacle, not ruling out a government crisis. “This would effectively mean that the planned time-schedule will be turned upside down or the Greek Parliament and its government will lose its inclination to negotiate on the terms offered by Germany and the rest of Eurozone members.”
Lauri didn't rule out that in worst case scenario, the economic situation in Greece will get so bad that the current scheme would become unusable.