Emor poll: Free Party and Conservatives could get 18 percent of vote combined
The TNS Emor poll conducted for Postimees daily this month showed that two parties not currently represented in Parliament continued to gain, potentially changing the coalition-building calculus in March.
The poll showed the Reform Party with a slight edge within the margin of error, 23 percent to the Center Party's 22 percent, but pollsters said that Center's support has been less volatile in recent months and it can "feel most secure."
"Those who said last month that they would vote for Center and those who did this month are 97 percent the same people," said Aivar Voog of Emor.
ERR's latest poll, conducted by competitor Turu-uuringute AS, showed the Center Party leading by a nose.
In the Emor poll, the Social Democrats had 20 percent of the vote, and the national conservative party IRL, 14 percent.
Then came the Free Party, a new group, with 9 percent - up from 8 percent last month. And the Conservative People's Party, a Euroskeptic right-wing party that for years had been at around 2 or 3 percent, now finds itself with 9 percent, up from 5 percent. The threshold for representation in Parliament in Estonia is 5 percent.
The percentages are expressed with regard to the 85 percent of respondents who had some preference. The poll indicated that turnout on March 1, including e-voting and early voting, might be around 67 percent.
ERR will release its last poll before the elections next week.