Political scientist Karmo Tüür said Andres Fogh Rasmussen, the former Nato head, was aiming to build up deterrence when he said the Baltic states could be next in line for a Russian invasion.
Rasmussen said on Thursday that Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, could launch a hybrid attack on a Baltic state to test Nato's reaction. He said the true goal is to shatter the organisation's solidarity and reassert Russia's dominance over Eastern Europe.
“We can't rule out the scenario. Russia certainly is drawing up plans and the temptation to execute them is fairly big, to prove that Nato is a 'paper tiger' which will fall apart at the first touch,” Tüür told ETV.
He said any such move would depend on political will, technical capability and readiness, adding that the first two factors are already there, while the third is doubtful.
“I can presume what Rasmussen is trying to say in his speeches is that Nato should be taken seriously as a force of deterrence,” he said.
Editor: J.M. Laats