In its sixth decade forecast paper, private US intelligence company Stratfor says Russia could dissolve and some border areas, such as Karelia next to Finland, could join neighbors.
The report, which is published in every five years, said Ukraine will remain a centerpiece of the international system over the next few years, but Russia is likely to see great internal problems as less money from energy imports will translate into less subsidies for border areas, leading to the weakening of Moscow's authority.
The decline of the FSB, Russia's security service, will play a major role, as it, and its Soviet predecessor, the KGB, have traditionally kept the nation together by crushing internal opposition.
The fragmentation of Russia could lead to the nation's nuclear arsenal, which is largely stationed in border areas, falling into the hands of smaller political units. “In this case, the FSB's power is weakened by its leadership's involvement in the national economy. As the economy falters, so does the FSB's strength. Without the FSB inspiring genuine terror, the fragmentation of the Russian Federation will not be preventable,” the report said.
Poland, Hungary and Romania will seek to recover regions lost to Russia, and the Kareila region in NW Russia will seek to rejoin Finland. There is no mention of Estonia, and other Baltic nations, and their lost regions now under Russia.
Speaking about Europe, the report says Germany is likely to decline with Poland becoming a regional leader in an anti-Russian block, and the EU could split into a number of smaller unions.
Editor: J.M. Laats