A new poll published on Wednesday showed support for the junior coalition partner SDE has fallen by 5 percentage points over the past five weeks.

"Several factors have likely contributed to the recent decline in support for SDE. First, the confusion surrounding the Lasnamäe district elder may have caused some Estonian-speaking voters, who are less connected to the party, to doubt their support. Secondly, voters have now realized the implications of the state budget cuts across various sectors," Saarts told ERR on Wednesday.

Even though SDE stood up for its position during the budget negotiations, other "softer areas" have been impacted such as culture and healthcare, he said. These areas have often been associated with the party.

"SDE's support surged to unusually high levels during the summer months, which is why they are now returning to their usual level of popularity," said Saarts.

"In the longer term, the more discussions focus on taxes and redistribution, the more SDE politicians can remain in the spotlight, which generally creates a favorable environment for the party. The question is how well the party can capitalize on these moments — recently, not very effectively, as the support figures show," he argued.

Saarts added that, if the margin of errors is taken into account in polling, SDE, Centr and EKRE are equally popular.

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