Current Mayor of Tallinn Mihhail Kõlvart (Center) is the most popular mayoral candidate at the upcoming elections and is likely to retain his seat, a new survey by pollster Norstat shows.
The results show Kõlvart, who has been mayor since April 2019, has the support of 40 percent of residents in the capital.
Reform's candidate Kristen Michal is supported by 19 percent of respondents, EKRE's Martin Helme by 15 percent and Eesti 200's Marek Reinaas has 10 percent.
Candidates for the Social Democrats, Isamaa and the Greens all have below 10 percent support with 8 percent, 7 percent and 1 percent, respectively.
However, when the results are disaggregated and split by nationality, there are big differences.
Among Estonian voters, Kõlvart is the third most popular candidate with 17 percent support.
Reform is the most popular with 27 percent, followed by EKRE on 21 percent.
Eesti 200 has 15 percent, SDE 11 percent and Isamaa 9 percent.
Voters of other nationalities
Looking at non-Estonian voters, which generally means Russian speakers, Kõlvart is by far the most popular candidate with 86 percent support.
SDE's Raimond Kaljulaid has 4 percent support, followed by Reform and EKRE both with 3 percent.
Kõlvart is running in Lasnamäe, Tallinn's biggest district, and is supported by 69 percent of respondents.
He is also the most popular candidate in Haabersti (40 percent), Mustamäe (39 percent), Pirita (39 percent) and Põhja Tallinn (35 percent).
Reform's Kristen Michal is the most popular mayoral candidate in Nõmme (35 percent), Kesklinn (31 percent) and Kristiine (26 percent).
Martin Helme received above-average support in Mustamäe (21 percent), Marek Reinaas in Pirita (34 percent), Raimond Kaljulaid in Põhja Tallinn (20 percent) and Urmas Reinsalu in Haabersti (12 percent).
Women prefer Kõlvart, men prefer Helme
The results also show Kõlvart is more popular among women than men, 42 percent compared to 32 percent, respectively.
However, Helme is the top preference of 21 percent of men but only has 10 percent from women.
The balance was almost equal for other candidates.
Looking at education, Kõlvart's support is higher among respondents with primary and basic education (69 percent) and lower among respondents with higher education (30 percent).
Michal is supported by 23 percent of respondents with higher education and 16 percent of respondents with secondary education.
Helme's support is highest among respondents with secondary education (16 percent) and Reinaas among respondents with higher education (14 percent).
Kõlvart has at least 50 percent support in all groups over 55 years old.
Michal's support is higher than average in the 16-54 age group.
Helme's support is higher than average in the age group 45-54 and Eesti 200's Marek Reinaas in the age group 25-34. Raimond Kaljulaid is also popular among the 25-34 group.
Former Minister of Foreign Affairs and mayoral candidate Urmas Reinsalu is the most popular among the youngest age group (16-24) and the oldest (75+).
Izmailova received more support than average in the age group of 25-34 years.
Editor: Helen Wright