Ratings: EKRE and Reform support almost equal

Logos of the six largest political parties in Estonia.
Logos of the six largest political parties in Estonia. Source: ERR

Support ratings for Estonia's major political parties has not changed significantly in the past week, according to one market research firm, while the recent rise in support for the Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE) has reversed slightly, while the Reform Party's has improved slightly.

The two coalition partners, Reform and Center, were backed by 43.4 percent of respondents to the survey, conducted by pollsters Norstat on behalf of NGO the Institute for the Study of Societal Issues (MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut) , while 40.6 percent expressed support for one of the three opposition parties – EKRE, Isamaa and the Social Democratic Party (SDE).

EKRE remains most-supported of the individual parties at 24.8 percent, according to Norstat, closely followed by Reform on 24.1 percent.

The Center Party picked up 19.3 percent of support, followed by 12.5 percent support for Eesti 200, 9 percent for SDE and 6.8 percent for Isamaa.

Eesti 200 does not have any Riigikogu seats, and is contesting its third election at the current local elections, whose advance voting period started Monday.

University of Tartu researcher Martin Mölder said that while the previous weeks had been characterized by a rapid decline in the support for the Reform Party and a concomitant increase in support for EKRE, that trend seems to have ended this week.

The latest results when aggregated with the four-week average show that Reform significantly improved its position, while EKRE's latest rise in support was their lowest showing for several weeks.

"However, this certainly does not mean that the situation between the two has been resolved. The tense struggle between EKRE and the Reform Party will soon be directly transformed into a campaign for the 2023 Riigikogu elections," Mölder said.

There are no major changes in the positions of the other parties, he noted.

"Support for the Center Party, which has recovered on average since the beginning of August, remains below 20 per cent. The rating for Eesti 200, the party following them, has remained very stable between 10 and 15 per cent since the beginning of the summer, while in the case of Isamaa, it is certainly worth noting that, for the first time since the coronavirus crisis in early 2020, their support has steadily and clearly risen well above the electoral threshold," he added.

The local elections polling day is this Sunday, October 17.


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Editor: Andrew Whyte

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