A recent survey by pollsters Turu-uuringute on behalf of ERR found that the support for Isamaa passed the Social Democratic Party's (SDE). Reform continues atop the rankings with the Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE) second.
While the support for SDE has generally been above that of Isamaa's since the last elections in March 2019, the latter has now passed the former. Isamaa had the support of 8 percent of survey respondents and SDE found the support of 7 percent.
Turu-uuringute AS, the conductor of the survey, explained that Isamaa's recent growth in support stems from their active local elections campaign, where the party has firmly been against Center's power in Tallinn. This marks the repetition of a pattern where Isamaa's support drops in the period between elections and goes back up right before.
At the same time, the two parties still trail Reform (24 percent), EKRE (22 percent), Center (17 percent) and Eesti 200 (16 percent). The prime minister's Reform Party did not see any change to its support from August. EKRE's support grew by one percentage point over the last month and the gap between the two top parties has decreased over time.
3 percent of survey respondents would vote for the Estonian Greens and TULE had 1 percent of support.
In total, 41 percent of the survey's respondents supported the coalition parties (Reform-Center) and 36 percent of the voting-age population supports the opposition parties (EKRE-Isamaa-SDE). The support for non-parliamentary parties in September was 20 percent.
Support by groups
Reform Party is still the most popular choice among Estonians at 28 percent, followed by EKRE at 23 percent, Eesti 200 at 16 percent and Center at 11 percent. Isamaa has the support of 9 percent of Estonians, SDE 7 percent and the Estonian Greens have 3 percent.
51 percent of voters from other nationalities support Center Party, followed by EKRE at 21 percent, Eesti 200 at 11 percent, Reform at 5 percent, SDE at 3 percent and the Estonian Greens at 2 percent.
EKRE has now become the most popular party in Ida-Viru County with 41 percent of respondents in that area saying they would vote for the party. Reform Party is the most popular party in central Estonia with 29 percent support. There are no other clear leaders across Estonia.
Three parties are close to sharing the first place in Tallinn: Center has 23 percent, Reform 22 percent and Eesti 200 21 percent. In the context of the upcoming local government elections in mid-October, it should be noted that the results of this survey show the situation in the context of Riigikogu elections, in which the so-called Russian vote carries less weight. A breakdown of Tallinn's voters' preferences will be available sometime in the next few days.
Editor: Kristjan Kallaste