Support for the non-parliamentary Eesti 200 party rose to its highest level ever, according to one recent poll. The Reform Party's support has fallen by 4.6 percentage points over five weeks, and is essentially the same as the level for its coalition partner, Center.
The two coalition partners, Reform and Center, picked up a total of 42.5 percent support, while the three opposition parties, the Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE), Isamaa and the Social Democratic Party (SDE), together polled at 38 percent, according to the survey, conducted by pollsters Norstat on behalf of conservative think-tank the Study of Societal Issues (MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut).
By individual party, EKRE retains its number one spot on 23.3 percent of support, compared with 21.3 percent for Reform, and 21.2 percent for Center.
The top three are followed by Eesti 200 on 17.6 percent – as noted the highest level of support for the party since Norstat began its weekly surveys three years ago – Isamaa (7.4 percent) and SDE (7.3 percent).
Isamaa has overtaken SDE again, after dropping slightly behind in January.
Eesti 200 follows a socially liberal, broadly free-market platform which is similar to that of Reform and in that respect is the coalition party's closest competitor. Eesti 200 was founded in 2018 and won its first seats at the October 2021 local elections.
Norstat says it polls at least 4,000 Estonian citizens of voting age, over a four-week period, and claims an error margin in proportion to the size of the party by support.
For instance, results for EKRE, as the largest party by support at present, have an error margin of +/- 1.31 percent compared with +/- 0.81 percent for SDE, Norstat says.
Norstat says it uses a hybrid polling method, employing both 'phone and online surveys.
The next elections are to the Riigikogu, on March 5 2023.
Editor: Andrew Whyte