Party ratings: Reform support falls below 29-percent mark

Reform Party MPs and activists at the party's recent unveiling of its local government candidate list.
Reform Party MPs and activists at the party's recent unveiling of its local government candidate list. Source: Siim Lõvi /ERR

The coalition Reform Party continues to be most supported in Estonia, though its level has fallen below the 29-percent mark, according to a recent survey.

The two coalition parties together, Reform and Center, picked up a total of 46.7 percent support according to this week's aggregate survey from pollsters Norstat, on behalf of conservative think-tank the Institute for Social Research (MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut), while the opposition parties together – Isamaa, the Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE) and the Social Democrats (SDE) polled at 36.7 percent.

Reform polled at 28.7 percent, EKRE at 21.9 percent and Center at 18 percent, according to the recently-released survey.

Reform's support fell 1.2 percentage points over the past week, while over the past three weeks that figure has been 2.3 percentage points, Norstat says.

Support for EKRE and Center remains static.

The top three are followed by Eesti 200 (13.2 percent), SDE, (8 percent) and Isamaa (6.8 percent).

Isamaa's support has risen to its highest level since December 2019, Norstat says, after increasing 1.1 percentage points over the past three weeks.

University of Tartu researcher Martin Mölder said that the only significant change of the past four weeks is the fall in Reform's support.

Mölder said: "The four-week decline in the Reform Party's aggregate support is the result of last week's result being extremely low - lower than 25 percent. Four weeks ago, on the other hand, their weekly support was more than 32 percent," adding that this trend might continue next week.

EKRE, conversely, will see a rise – the party has nearly caught up with Reform, whereas four weeks ago it stood at 18 percent while Reform's was around 30 percent.

"This means it can be forecast that the aggregate average for EKRE will take a step up next week, but whether this is a continuation of a growth trend which had momentarily halted, is too hard to prognosticate," Mölder said, referring to growth in support for EKRE earlier in the year.

Isamaa has been seeing a tendency towards growth since summer as well, Mölder added.

The next election is to the local municipalities, on October 17. All foreign nationals who have permanent residence in Estonia are eligible to vote.


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Editor: Andrew Whyte

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