Eesti 200 has drawn level with the Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE) in support, according to a recent survey commissioned by public broadcaster ERR. EKRE's rating fell between October and November, as did support for Reform and Center.
37 percent of respondents to the survey, conducted by pollsters Turu-uuringute on behalf of ERR, backed the two coalition parties – Reform and Center – while the three opposition parties combined: The Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE), the Social Democratic Party (SDE) and Isamaa, polled at 37 percent also.
Eesti 200 is a non-parliamentary party – it is not represented at the Riigikogu – but picked up 19 percent support in the latest survey, up 6 percentage points on October's result.
Reform remains most-supported at 21 percent, though down three percentage points on October, while EKRE has also lost support, polling at 19 percent and now neck-and-neck with Eesti 200.
A graph showing November's ratings is below
Center's support has also fallen, to 17 percent, from 19 percent, and from 24-27 percent at the end of last year.
SDE and Isamaa are the other two parties to have picked up support – to 10 percent and 9 percent respectively, from 7 percent in both cases in October.
The remaining parties, the Greens (Rohelised) and TULE, are below the 5 percent threshold required to pick up Riigikogu seats under Estonia's d'Hondt system of proportional representation, with 2 percent and below 1 percent respectively, while 3 percent of respondents to the Turu-uuringute survey said they would back an independent candidate (not a named candidate, simply as a category – ed.).
A graph showing party ratings and their changes between September (light blue), October (royal blue, or thereabouts) and November (dark blue) is below
Regional and demographic breakdown
Center's support fell in the capital as well, from 30 percent in October, to 25 percent in November. Center had previously ruled Tallinn city government alone, but now is in coalition with SDE as the junior partner, following last month's local elections.
Reform's support in Tallinn has risen slightly, from 21 percent to 22 percent.
Another traditional Center stronghold is Ida-Viru County, and the party has lost support significantly there as well, from 31 percent in October, to 23 percent in November.
Similarly EKRE's support has fallen, from 23 percent to 16 percent, over the same time-frame, Turu-uuringute says. EKRE had tried to capitalize on falling support for Center in the region – where the native language for the majority of the population is Russian – in particular by focusing on social issues.
Meanwhile, the more socially liberal Eesti 200 and SDE are both now ahead of EKRE, and rivaling Center, in Ida-Viru County, with 20 percent and 23 percent of support respectively.
Eesti 200 and Reform perform best in northern Estonia, picking up 22 percent and 20 percent support respectively, while EKRE is strongest in western (29 percent) and central (22 percent) Estonia, and is virtually neck-and-neck with Reform in South Estonia, where EKRE polls at 22 percent (Reform polled at 21 percent).
Among voters whose first language is Estonian, Reform remain most popular at 24 percent, followed by Eesti 200 (21 percent), EKRE (19 percent), Center and Isamaa tied on 10 percent, and SDE on 9 percent.
Among voters of other nationalities – in practice referring mainly to Russian-speaking Estonian citizens (non-citizens of any nationality may not vote in Riigikogu elections – ed.) Center is still by far most popular at 51 percent, with EKRE on 16 percent, Eesti 200 on 12 percent and SDE on 11 percent. Reform polls at 5 percent with this demographic's respondents, while the other parties all polled below the one-percent mark.
The above results are after the removal of the "don't know" component – 17 percent of those polled answered in this way in November (compared with 27 percent last month).
The Turu-uuringute survey was commissioned by ERR and polled 1,000 Estonian citizens of voting age, nationwide. 420 respondents were polled by phone and 580 online, over the period November 4-9. Turu-uuringute claims a maximum margin of error of ± 3.10 percent.
Editor: Andrew Whyte