The two coalition parties, Reform and Center, picked up 46 percent of support according to the survey, conducted by pollsters Norstat, on behalf of conservative think-tank the Institute for the Study of Societal Issues (MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut), while the three opposition parties, the Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE), the Social Democrats (SDE) and Isamaa, picked up 36 percent support combined.

Of individual parties, Reform polled at 25.7 percent, Norstat says, with EKRE in second place (21.6 percent) and Center third (20.3 percent).

These results are essentially unchanged from the preceding week, though a rise in support for Reform dating back to early December 2021 seems to have topped-out.

EKRE saw the largest rise of any single party, by 1 percentage point, while Center's remained the same as before.

The top three are followed by non-parliamentary party Eesti 200 (15.3 percent), with Isamaa and SDE neck-and-neck on 7.2 percent.

Norstat conducts its poll on a weekly basis and aggregates the results over a four-week period, based on responses from 4,000 Estonian citizens of voting age (18 and over, as in the case of Riigikogu elections), weighting them to socio-economic indicators and using a hybrid method of phone surveying and online questionnaires.

The current aggregate covers the period December 10 to January 7, while Norstat says its error margin is in proportion to the volume of supporters of a given party – for Reform, as the largest party by support, Norstat claims a +/- 1.35-percent error margin, whereas for SDE it claims a +/- 0.8-percent error margin.

The next elections, to the Riigikogu, take place on March 5 2023.

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