Ratings: Isamaa support falls to 3-year low, Parempoolsed highest ever
The opposition Isamaa party has slumped to its lowest support level since November 2023 while the Social Democratic Party's (SDE) rating has risen to a two-year high.
Despite the fall, Isamaa remains the most supported party in Estonia; the non-parliamentary Parempoolsed has been gaining ground too, according to the latest Norstat poll, and is at an all-time high rating.
Norstat conducts its poll on a weekly basis on behalf of think tank the Institute for Societal Research, aggregating the results over the preceding four weeks.
Isamaa rated at 23.4 percent in this week's poll, followed by the Center Party, also in opposition, with 21.8 percent, largely unchanged on the previous week. This means the support gap between the two most supported parties has narrowed to 1.6 percentage points.
A third opposition party, SDE, saw its rating rise to 15.9 percent, the highest level in two years.
Next comes the coalition Reform Party on 13.5 percent, followed by the fourth opposition party, EKRE, which had a rating of 12.4 percent in the latest Norstat results. Parempoolsed polled at 7.4 percent, above the 5‑percent threshold required to win seats at an election.
Support for Parempoolsed has risen by two percentage points over the past four weeks and is at its highest level according to Norstat since the party was founded, ahead of the 2021 elections.
The second coalition party, Eesti 200, polled at 1.6 percent in the latest survey. The Estonian Greens (Rohelised) polled at 0.7 percent, while all other parties combined had a 3.4 percent rating.
The two coalition parties together had a rating of 15.1 compared with 73.5 percent for the four opposition parties combined.
If these ratings translated into electoral results, Isamaa would win 26 Riigikogu seats, up from its current eight. Center would pick up 24 seats (up from seven); SDE 17 seats (+8), Reform 14 seats (-22) and EKRE 13 seats (+4). Parempoolsed would win its first seven Riigikogu mandates, while Eesti 200 would lose all 12 of its current seats. There are currently also 20 independent MPs.
The latest Norstat aggregated polls cover the period August 10 – September 5 and 4,000 Estonian citizens of Riigikogu voting age were quizzed.
The next elections are to the Riigikogu in March 2027.
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Editor: Andrew Whyte, Urmet Kook
