Prime minister survey: Support increases for Kallas and Helme

After the elections, 36.7 percent of respondents would prefer Kaja Kallas (Reform) to remain in the position of prime minister. Following her are Jüri Ratas (Center) and Martin Helme (EKRE).
After the elections, 36.7 percent of respondents would prefer Kaja Kallas (Reform) to remain in the position of prime minister. Following her are Jüri Ratas (Center) and Martin Helme (EKRE). Source: Foto: Siim Lõvi/ERR, kollaaž: JJ Oidermaa

Kaja Kallas is the most favored candidate for prime minister following the elections, followed by Jüri Ratas and Martin Helme. In a week-to-week comparison, support for Kallas and Helme increased, according to an ERR-commissioned Kantar Emor poll.

Kantar Emor polled respondents on who they wanted to see as Estonia's next prime minister after the March 5 elections.

Following the elections, 36.7 percent of respondents would like to see Kaja Kallas (Reform) retain her position as prime minister; in a survey conducted one week earlier, 33.7 percent of respondents held the same opinion.

Jüri Ratas, the leader of the Center Party, ranked second in the survey, with 21.3 percent  of respondents favoring his candidacy as prime minister, which is slightly less than the 21.9 percent from the prior week.

Martin Helme, the leader of the EKRE, came in third place with 15.6 percent; a week ago, 14.1 percent of voters held the same opinion.

Other party leaders lag well behind the top three.

Helir-Valdor Seeder (Isamaa) would receive 3.8 percent of the vote, down from 3.9 a week earlier, and Lavly Perlingu (Parempoolsed) would receive 2.9 percent, down from 3.1 percent a week earlier.

Lauri Läänemets (SDE) would receive 1.9 percent, down from 2.9 percent a week earlier and Lauri Hussar would receive 1.7 percent, down from  2.5 percent earlier.

4.3 percent would prefer someone else to serve as prime minister ans 11.8 percent were unable to express a preference.

Support within respondent groups

There is no substantial variation in support between male and female voters for Kallas. 37 percent of male voters and 36 percent of female voters believe she should remain prime minister.

However, Ratas has more women among his supporters. 26 percent of female voters would see Ratas as prime minister, compared to 16 percent of male voters.

Helme has significantly higher support among men. 20 percent of male voters would like to see Helme become prime minister, compared to 12 percent of female voters.

Support for Kallas is higher than average among Estonian voters with 43 percent of Estonian voters backing her candidacy.

In the same group, Helme came second with 17 percent and Ratas third with 15 percent.

With 43 percent of the vote, Ratas is the overwhelming favorite among voters of other nationalities. He is followed with 13 percent for Kallas and 9 perceng for Helme.

13 percent of voters of other nationalities would prefer someone other than the current party leaders to serve as prime minister, while 16 percent were unable to voice a choice.

Eesti 200 and SDE voters' first preference is Kallas

The preferences of different parties' voters. Source: Kantar Emor

The most popular candidates for prime minister among Reform Party, Center Party and EKRE voters were Kallas, Ratas and Helme, in that order.

Perling and Seeder are favored contenders for prime minister among Parempoolsed and Isamaa voters, albeit to a lesser extent.

There are also a considerable number of right-leaning voters who favor Kallas, as well as Isamaa voters who support Kallas, Ratas and Helme.

In contrast, Kallas is the favorite candidate for prime minister among both Eesti 200 and SDE voters.

After the elections, 48 percent of the Eesti 200 voters and 42 percent of the SDE voters would like to see the leader of the Reform Party as prime minister.

Only 15 percent of Eesti 200 voters would like to see their party's chair, Lauri Hussar, in the prime minister's office, and the same is true for Ratas.

Only 17 percent of SDE voters would prefer to see Läänemets as prime minister, while SDE voters have the same level of support for Jüri Ratas.

It is possible that these numbers represent not only the meager support for the leaders of Eesti 200 and SDE, but also the voters' realistic assessment of which candidates have the best chance of becoming prime minister.

The ERR commissioned Kantar Emor to conduct a study between February 6 and 9, which 1,493 residents aged 18 to 84 responded to. One-third of the respondents were interviewed by phone and the other two-thirds were interviewed online. The maximum margin of error for this sample is 2.4%.


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Editor: Kristina Kersa

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