Candidates survey: Center rises on EKRE's heels

Isamaa support declined the most during the week, while Eesti 200 support increased the most.
Isamaa support declined the most during the week, while Eesti 200 support increased the most. Source: Foto: Siim Lõvi; collage: JJ Oidermaa

The Center Party reduced the gap with EKRE in the fourth ERR survey featuring candidate names, compared to the previous survey. Despite a decline in popularity over the past week, the Reform Party remains the most popular political party.

Kantar Emor provided respondents in each electoral district with the top three candidates of the political parties running for office in the district, from which they chose one.

Aivar Voog, a research expert at Kantar Emor, said that the top three options earn an average of 80 percent of the votes, which is sufficient for making predictions.

In a survey commissioned by ERR, 31.4 percent of voters supported the Reform Party, down from 32.8 percent a week earlier, giving them a substantial advantage. EKRE came in second place in the candidate poll with 16.9 percent of the vote, down from 19.0 percent a week earlier. The Center Party was in third place with 16.4 percent of the vote, up from 15 percent one week before.

The Center Party was nearly able to catch up to EKRE.

Eesti 200 ranked fourth with 13.9 percent support, up from 10.5 percent a week earlier, which is the greatest weekly rise.

Also surpassing the threshold would be SDE with 8.2 percent, up from 8.1 percent a week earlier, and Isamaa with 6.4 percent, down from 8.7 percent a week earlier.

Isamaa and Eesti 200 had the most unstable support ratings over a three-week period, demonstrating the hesitancy of their voters in expressing a first preference for them.

By 1.7 percent each, Parempoolsed and the Greens would fall below the electoral threshold.

A week ago, the support of Parempoolsed was 1.5 percent while the Greens' support was 2.2%.

3.4 percent would vote for an alternative party or candidate.

Possible allocation of mandates

Kantar Emor also calculated the distribution of Riigikogu mandates based on the following support figures: Reform 38 seats, one less than last week; EKRE 18 seats, three less than last week; Center 17 seats, two more than last week; Eesti 200 14 seats, four more than last week; SDE eight seats, one more than last week; and Isamaa six seats, minus three.

Eesti 200, Center and the SDE gained mandates in comparison to the previous week, while EKRE, Reform and Isamaa lost mandates.

Reform, Isamaa and SDE coalition would receive 52 mandates, if the current distribution of mandates continues.

The liberal wing combination, comprised of the Reform Party, Eesti 200 and the Social Democratic Party (SDE) would get 60 mandates.

If Isamaa were to replace SDE, there would be a total of 58 mandates.

A coalition of the Reform Party and the Center Party would garner 55 seats in parliament.

A coalition consisting of the Center Party, the Conservative People's Party (EKRE), and Isamaa would receive 41 seats.

Theoretically, an alliance without the Reform Party is also possible, but it would need Eesti 200 to form a coalition government with EKRE, which several of its leaders have rejected. 

Party survey

In addition to the poll that included the names of the candidates, Emor also conducted a routine survey in which respondents were asked to identify the political party for which they would vote.

In this survey, 31 percent backed the Reform Party, 17.2 percent supported EKRE, 16.4 percent supported the Center Party, and 13.4 percent supported Eesti 200.

The SDE received 8.6 percent support in the party popularity survey, followed by Isama with 7.3 percent, the Greens with 2.5 percent and Parempoolsed with 2.2 percent.

The three current coalition parties, Reform, Isamaa and SDE, were backed by 47 percent, down from 50 percent a week before, while the opposition parties were supported by 33 percent, down from 34 percent in the previous poll.

The liberal wing, including the Reform Party, the Eesti 200 and the Social Democratic Party (SDE), received 53 percent support, up from 51 percent a week ago, while the more conservative wing, including the Conservative People's Party (EKRE), Isamaa and, possibly, the Center Party, received 41 percent support, down from 43 percent in the previous poll.

Support in respondent groups

The Reform Party's popularity among Estonian respondents decreased from 37 percent to 36 percent.

EKRE was in second place with 19 percent, compared to 21 percent the previous time, and Eesti 200 was in third place with 15 percent, compared to 12 percent the previous time.

9 percent of Estonian respondents supported Isamaa and the Center Party, while 8 percent supported SDE.

3 percent of Estonians supported Parempoolsed while 2 percent supported the Greens.

The Center Party led among voters of other nationalities with 45 percent, same previous week.

Reform Party received 14 percent of the vote, followed by EKRE with 12 percent, SDE with 10 percent and Eesti 200 with 9 percent.

EKRE, with 23 percent of male responders, and Isama, with 9 percent, have a greater proportion of male voters.

The Center Party with 20 percent of female respondents and the Reform Party with 33 percent of female respondents, are more popular with female voters.

There are no substantial gender differences among SDE, 200, the Greens and Parempoolsed voters.

Support figures including "no preference" respondents

Emor deleted the "no preference" responses from the results, making the parties' ranking percentages comparable to the results of state elections.

20 percent of respondents in last week's survey said "no preference."

A week ago, it was 23 percent, and two weeks ago, it was 26 percent, indicating that the share of respondents with "no preference" has decreased as the election approaches.

16 percent of Estonian respondents and 35 percent of voters of other nationalities had no preference. There has been a reduction in the number of Estonian respondents.

If the "no preference" respondents are also taken into account, support for the Reform Party was 26 percent, up from 25 percent in the previous poll, the EKRE 14 percent, down from 15 percent, and the Center Party 12 percent, same as a week before.

The support of Eesti 200 including the "no preference" respondents was 11 percent, for SDE seven percent and Isama six percent

The ERR news agency commissioned Kantar Emor to conduct a study between February 13 and 16, which 1,595 residents aged 18 to 84 responded to. One-third of the respondents were interviewed via telephone and two-thirds were questioned online.


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Editor: Urmet Kook, Kristina Kersa

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