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Ratings: Support by party in each of Estonia's 12 electoral districts

A Riigikogu sitting.
A Riigikogu sitting. Source: Siim Lõvi /ERR

Market research firm Kantar Emor has surveyed the most popular parties in each electoral district, ahead of the March 5 Riigikogu elections.

The Reform Party is, according to Kantar Emor, most-supported in eight of the 12 districts, joint-highest in one, and is in second place in two more, with only Ida-Viru County a poor performing area for the party.

The Kantar Emor survey complements its poll of most-supported candidates, here and covers all 12 of Estonia's electoral districts (see map below) as follows:

Electoral district nr. 1 (Tallinn Haabersti, Põhja-Tallinn and Kristiine districts): The Reform Party polls highest at 29 percent, followed by Center at 18 percent. Eesti 200 picked up 14 percent of support, while the Social Democrats (SDE) and the Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE) received 12 percent each in support.

Electoral district nr. 2 (Tallinn City Center, Lasnamäe and Pirita districts): Center polls highest here, in the most populous electoral district in the capital and in the country, at 34 percent. With the same logic, Tallinn Mayor Mihhail Kõlvart is running in the same district. Reform is also highly-supported in this district, with 27 percent, while SDE are some distance behind in third place, with 11 percent of support.

Electoral district nr. 3 (Tallinn Mustamäe and Nõmme districts): Reform polls highest here at 33 percent, followed by Center (21 percent) and EKRE (18 percent).

Electoral district nr. 4 (Harju- and Rapla counties):  The clear leader in this district, which contains much of the affluent Tallinn commuter belt, is the Reofmr Party, which polled as high as 45 percent according to Kantar Emor. The party's leader and prime minister, Kaja Kallas, is running in this district. Some way behind in joint second-place lie EKRE and Eesti 200, on 14 percent apiece. In the case of Eesti 200 this points towards the party being a competitor for Reform.

Electoral district nr. 5 (Hiiu-, Lääne- ja Saare counties): Reform also predominates in this comparatively affluent part of the country, on 35 percent. The district does however represent somewhat of a patchwork of party support, with EKRE (21 percent) and SDE (11 percent) performing well, while Eesti 200 Eesti 200 outstrips the latter on 15 percent, and the Center Party matches it, with 11 percent support.

Electoral district nr. 6 (Lääne-Viru County):  This largely rural county carries the smallest number of seats up for grabs (five), and while Reform is most-supported here, too, with 38 percent of support, EKRE (16 percent) and Center (13 percent) also perform strongly.

The 12 Electoral Districts in Estonia (Riigikogu elections). Source: Ljubinka/Wikimedia Commons

Electoral district nr. 7 (Ida-Viru County): Viru County was once administratively one unit and was later split in two, and the electoral districts were set up on the same lines. Center had traditionally been the strongest party in the easternmost of the two, indeed this was likely the reason why the divide was made in the first place, and while its support was already ebbing even at the last Riigikogu elections in 2019, it still can claim 25 percent, by Kantar Emor's reckoning. EKRE, Reform and Eesti 200 follow and are roughly neck-and-neck.

Electoral district nr. 8 (Järva- and Viljandi counties):  This South Estonian district is another place where, while Reform performs well (31 percent), EKRE (20 percent), Center (14 percent) and Eesti 200 (13 percent) are clearly present.

Electoral district nr. 9 (Jõgeva- and Tartu counties): Once again, Reform is in the lead on 32 percent, followed by EKRE on 23 percent.

Electoral district nr. 10 (Tartu City):  As the capital has traditionally been a Center stronghold, so too is Estonia's second city part of Reform's heartlands. The party picked up 32 percent support in the university town, followed by EKRE (20 percent). Conversely, not only Center but also Isamaa and Eesti 200, even as the latter was co-founded by a University of Tartu political scientist, perform more weakly in Tartu than in any other district, hovering around the 5-percent mark – should these parties poll below that level on the day, they would not win any seats in Tartu at all, under Estonia's d'Hondt system of proportional representation.

Electoral district nr. 11 (Võru-, Valga- ja Põlva counties):  The southeasternmost electoral district sees EKRE polling highest, at 27 percent, though Reform, who are running former education minister Liina Kersna here, are breathing down their neck too here on 24 percent. SDE poll at 12 percent, their largest level of support in any district.

Electoral district nr. 12 (Pärnu County): While this region is a traditional stronghold for EKRE, they are neck-and-neck here with Reform, according to Kantar Emor, on 32 percent each.

Kantar Emor's two polls, on parties and most popular candidates, took in the opinions of close to 3,000 people.

The company claims a larger margin of error in the less populous districts, such as Lääne-Viru and Ida-Viru counties, given sample numbers of respondents would have been smaller.

Polling day is March 5.

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Editor: Andrew Whyte, Urmet Kook

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