Expert says moving Estonia's units near border has limited strategic impact
As Estonia strengthens its defenses, the country is shifting military units closer to the Russian border and expanding long‑range strike capability. Security expert Rainer Saks says moving units by less than 100 kilometers offers little strategic benefit, arguing that Estonia's real vulnerabilities lie in air defense and attack‑drone capacity.
Recently, the EDF's 1st Infantry Brigade moved its Jõhvi staff company and brigade headquarters from Tapa, and next year a company will relocate from Jõhvi to Narva. The shift toward the eastern border is part of preparations for active defense.
"I wouldn't call this a strategic advantage. It's more routine work. A decision was made years ago that we begin defending the country at the state border. It makes sense to move certain functions and units closer to the border," said Tarmo Kundla, commander of the 1st Infantry Brigade.
"So that in a crisis we don't have to start moving there — we're already there. If someone thinks this makes us a target, they're right. If we're sitting in our bases as targets when war breaks out, then we've done something very wrong," said Defense Minister Martin Herem.
According to Saks, relocating units may be justified in terms of military planning, but strategically the change is minor.
"No matter where we place our forces, they are vulnerable if we lack air defense. If the air‑defense issue is solved, that becomes a major achievement in defense planning. Until air defense is sufficient, placing units at specific points is less important," Saks said.
Herem says air defense is improving month by month. Additional ammunition for existing systems will arrive this year, and long‑range strike capability is being developed.
"We have HIMARS. We previously received loitering munitions — essentially winged drones similar to Russia's Lancet. We already have them in Estonia, and the unit is trained," Herem said.
Some HIMARS munitions have already arrived, though not the 300‑kilometer‑range missiles.
"Russia could previously plan operations against Estonia knowing it could mass forces right near the border, use aircraft from close range, and fire missiles from close range. If Estonia could bring that 300‑kilometer zone under fire control, it would be a major change," Saks said.
The Financial Times reported on Monday about changes in Estonia's defense planning. Saks says it is important to show foreign media that Estonia is preparing countermeasures — sending a message to both Russia and allies that Estonia's defense forces are capable.
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Editor: Johanna Alvin, Argo Ideon
