Results across all three market research firms which regularly conduct political party polls in Estonia have placed the prime minister's party, Reform, both as most popular and as the party which saw the largest rise in support, since the start of the year.
Reform's coalition partner, Center, has seen the largest fall in support over the same time-frame, according to the combined results.
Different polling methods – for instance the proportion of surveys conducted online versus over the phone, or the overall number of respondents polled – have been used by the three companies, while the results must also be seen in the light of the current defense and security situation.
Surveys by Norstat and Kantar Emor revealed identical support figures for the Reform Party for March, at 26.4 per cent.
While Turu-uuringute's rating for Reform was somewhat lower, at 23 percent, the combined average for the three companies game 25.7 percent for the prime minister's party, making Reform the clear leader.
The opposition Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE) and the non-parliamentary Eesti 200, in addition to occupying different sections of the political spectrum are also neck-and-neck when all three pollsters' results are combined.
While EKRE (20.2 percent on average) was fractionally higher than Eesti 200 (19.9 percent), the individual companies placed them in different positions. With Norstat, EKRE were slightly ahead od Eesti 200, while that situation was reversed in Turu-uuringute's results.
Center, in coalition with Reform, firmly fell to fourth place, with an average of 16.2 percent across the three companies. While Kantar Emor gave the party 18.1 percent of support, Turu-uuringute's figure was only 14 percent, likely an all-time low for the Center Party.
The two other opposition parties, the Social Democrats (SDE), who recently elected a new leader, and Isamaa, who even more recently expelled the dissident "Parempoolsed" faction, did not see differing results between Norstat, Turu-uuringute and Kantar Emor, with SDE on an average of 7.8 percent and Isamaa 6.3 percent.
Support for the non-parliamentary Greens (Rohelised) was 2.6 percent on average for March, while TULE's stood at below 1 percent.
A minimum of 5 percent of the vote is required in any constituency to win seats, under Estonia's d'Hondt system of proportional representation.
The levels of support in March per Norstat, Kantar Emor and Turu-uuringute are below, together with the average (Koondkesmine), and for each party in order - Reform, EKRE, Eesti 200, Center, SDE, Isamaa and the Greens.
Reform saw largest surge in support, January-March
Compared with the start of 2022, Reform's support has risen the most according to the three pollsters' figures when taken as an average – from 20.1 percent in January, to 26.4 percent in February and 26.4 percent this month.
EKRE's has fallen by 2.5 percentage points to 20.2 percent January to March, while Eesti 200's has risen, by 1.1 percentage point, to 19.9 percent, over the same time-frame.
Center's support fell more than any other party's, from 20 percent in January, to 16.2 percent this month.
Isamaa also saw a fall. While it was on par with SDE in January (7.5 percent versus 7.4 percent), in March Isamaa polled 6.3 percent on average.
SDE saw a small rise, to 7.8 percent, over the same period.
The Greens' support fell slightly, from 2.6 percent to 2.5 percent, between February and March.
The next elections are to the Riigikogu, a little under a year from now.
Editor: Andrew Whyte