Ratings: EKRE closes gap further on Reform

EKRE held a meeting of its council on April 2 in Tallinn.
EKRE held a meeting of its council on April 2 in Tallinn. Source: Priit Mürk/ERR

Support for the coalition Reform Party has continued to ebb in the past week, while, conversely, that of the opposition Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE) has been rising, according to a recent survey.

Meanwhile the Center Party's support has remained static, according to market research conducted by conservative think-tank Norstat on behalf of the Institute for Societal Studies (MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut).

Norstat holds its surveys on a weekly basis, aggregating the results over a four-week period.

A total of 46.1 per cent of respondents to the latest poll backed one of the three coalition parties: Reform, the Social Democrats (SDE) or Isamaa, while 40.5 percent pledged for either of the two opposition parties – Center and EKRE.

The remainder would have picked a non-parliamentary party or were undecided.

By party, Reform is supported by 31 percent of respondents, EKRE by 25 percent and Center by 15.5 percent.

This represents a 1.1-percentage-point fall in support for Reform, while EKRE's support has risen by 1.7 percentage points over the past week.

Since the end of July, support for EKRE has risen by 5 percentage points.

Center's support has risen slightly on last week's figure of 15.1 percent, according to Norstat, which was the lowest figure the party had polled since early 2019 when Norstat started conducting its weekly surveys in their current format.

Non-parliamentary Eesti 200 was next, with 9.7 percent of support, while SDE and Isamaa were neck-and-neck on 7.6 percent and 7.5 percent respectively.

Isamaa's support has fallen by one percentage point in the past week.

The Estonian Greens, also a non-parliamentary party, picked up 1.6 percent support in the past week, while a newcomer, the Parempoolsed, recently incorporated around a core of ex-Isamaa dissidents, picked up 1.1 percent of support for the first week Norstat has included it.

The graph below shows the relative support levels for the major political parties in Estonia since early 2019, while the tables following show 4-week aggregate figures and weekly results. (Key: Yellow = Reform Party (Reformierakond), Black = EKRE, Dark Green = Center Party (Keskerakond), light blue = Eesti 200, red = SDE (Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond), royal blue = Isamaa, light green = Estonian Greens (Eesti Rohelised). Muu = "other".)

The latest aggregate results reflect the survey period from August 23 to September 19, while a total of around 4,000 Estonian citizens of voting age were polled.

Norstat is one of three major polling companies which conduct regular party support surveys in Estonia. The other two are Kantar Emor and Turu-uuringute.

The next election is to the Riigikogu, on March 5 2023.


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Editor: Andrew Whyte

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