Combined party ratings: SDE close gap on Eesti 200

Party logos of the six largest political parties in Estonia.
Party logos of the six largest political parties in Estonia. Source: ERR

Support for the coalition Social Democrats (SDE) in August grew more than any of the other major political parties in Estonia, and is now just 1.5 percentage points behind non-parliamentary party Eesti 200, according to the combined results from the three major market research companies who conduct regular party rating surveys in Estonia.

Support levels reported for Eesti 200, which has no Riigikogu seats though is represented in local municipalities, including in Tallinn, varied the most across the three companies' results for August, along with that of the senior coalition partner, Reform.

The Reform Party's rating ranged from 28 percent with Turu-uuringute's survey to as high as 34.5 percent in Norstat's most recent poll.

Meanwhile Kantar Emor had Reform on 31.5 percent of support, almost identical to the mean rating for all three surveys combined (31.3 percent).

Reform, Prime Minister Kaja Kallas' party, has 34 Riigikogu seats, making it the most-represented party at the Riigikogu.

Eesti 200 runs on a platform which has significant overlap with Reform and thus is a major competitor to the prime minister's party ahead of the next general election in March 2023; the party's rating also fluctuated across the three market research firms' results, from 8.3 percent with Norstat, to 13.1 percent with Kantar Emor, and as high as 14 percent with Turu-uuringute.

In second place overall behind Reform lay the opposition Conservative Peole's Party of Estonia (EKRE), whose support ranged from 17 percent (Turu-uuringute) to 18.1 percent (Kantar Emor) to 21 percent (Norstat).

EKRE has 21 Riigikogu seats.

The other opposition party, Center, came third with all three surveys and with little variation. Center polled 15 percent with Turu-uuringute, 15.8 percent with Kantar Emor and 16.3 percent with Norstat.

Center has 26 Riigikogu seats.

As noted SDE's average support (10.3 percent) for August was close to Eesti 200's (11.8 percent).

This was the only party to see significant growth in support, but since Turu-uuringute did not conduct surveys in the month of July, we have to go back to June to spot a trend – which is for a rise (7.2 percent combined) for SDE and a fall, from 12.8 percent, for Eesti 200.

SDE has 10 seats in parliament.

The other represented party, Isamaa, stood at 8 percent for all three firms in August, with little variation between them. Isamaa has 10 Riigikogu seats.

The Green Party polled at 1.8 percent on average.

A minimum of 5 percent of the vote is required to win seats in any constituency in Estonia, under its d'Hondt system of proportional representation.

The three market research firms conduct their surveys differently in terms of frequency, number of people polled, demographics and other variables. Norstat's survey is commissioned by a conservative thinktank, the Institute for Societal Studies (MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut), while Kantar Emor's most recent poll was commissioned by ERR.

The general election takes place on March 5 2023.

Combined party ratings for August across the three companies, Norstat, Kantar Emor and Turu-uuringute, followed by the average of the three (Koondkeskmine). Keskerakond is the Center Party, Rohlised are the Estonian Greens. Source: ERR


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Editor: Andrew Whyte

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