The coalition Reform Party retains its buoyant level of support, while non-parliamentary Eesti 200 is continuing to see a fall, according to a recent survey.
The survey, conducted by pollsters Norstat on behalf of conservative think-tank the Institute for Societal Studies (MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut), found that 51.8 percent of respondents supported one of the three coalition parties: Reform, Isamaa or the Social Democrats (SDE), while 37.2 percent pledged their support to either of the two opposition parties, the Center Party and the Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE).
By party alone, Reform polled at 34.5 percent, followed by EKRE (21 percent), and Center, at 16.2 percent of support, all figures relatively unchanged on the previous week.
The top three are followed by SDE (8.8 percent), Isamaa (8.5 percent) and Eesti 200 (8.3 percent), meaning there is virtually nothing to choose from from these three parties, in terms of support at least.
While Isamaa and to a certain extent SDE have seen a trend for a rise in support in recent weeks, Eesti 200's continues to fall – since early March its support level has fallen by 11.4 percentage points and as seen it is now in sixth place, whereas late last year the party threatened Center and EKRE with its support levels.
The non-parliamentary Green Party polled at 1.5 percent, well below the 5-percent threshold required to win seats in a given constituency under Estonia's modified d'Hondt system of proportional representation.
The graph below shows the relative support levels for the various parties in recent months, while the tables show four-week-aggregated, and weekly, support for the parties (Key: Keskerakond = Center Party, Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised = Green Party, Muu = Other).
The Norstat poll surveyed just over 4,000 Estonian citizens of voting age, and is aggregated over the four weeks to August 22.
The next election is to the Riigikogu, on March 5 2023.
Editor: Andrew Whyte