Party ratings: Isamaa edges ahead of Eesti 200

New Isamaa ministers, from left Riina Solman (public administration), Lea Danilson-Järg (justice) and Tõnis Lukas (education).
New Isamaa ministers, from left Riina Solman (public administration), Lea Danilson-Järg (justice) and Tõnis Lukas (education). Source: Ken Mürk/ERR

Coalition party Isamaa has risen to fourth place in terms of popularity with Estonian voters this past week, according to a recent survey. Isamaa is slightly ahead of the non-parliamentary Eesti 200.

Other than that, no significant change was seen in the survey, conducted on a weekly basis by pollsters Norstat on behalf of the  Institute for Societal Studies (MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut), compared with the previous week's results, and the coalition Reform Party remains by far the most-supported party.

A total of 51.7 percent of respondents to Norstat's poll pledged their support to one of the three coalition parties – Reform, the prime minister's party, which has 34 Riigikogu seats, Isamaa (12 seats) and the Social Democrats (SDE, 10 seats) – while 36.3 percent opted for one of the two opposition parties – Center and the Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE).

As noted Eesti 200, and also the Green Party, are not currently represented at the Riigikogu.

Reform polled at 33.7 percent, according to Norstat, over 14 percentage points ahead of second-placed EKRE on 19.6 percent. In third place was Center, which polled at 16.7 percent.

The remaining parties polled as follows: Isamaa – 9.4 percent, Eesti 200 – 9.3 percent, and SDE 8.6 percent.

Both Isamaa and SDE have seen a rise in support in recent weeks and are bolstered by their inclusion in the coalition which entered office last month. Isamaa's leadership had faced a challenge from a breakaway group, the Parempoolsed, whose leading figures have been expelled from the party – one of whom now sits as an independent MP.

Parempoolsed have not as yet registered as a political party, which requires a minimum of 500 members among other prerequisites.

Conversely, Eesti 200, at the tail-end of last year and into early 2022 the third-most supported party, has seen a lengthy trend towards decline, and now rates at 10.4 percentage points lower than it did at the start of March.

The diagram below (Keskerakond = Center Party, Rohelised = Green Party) shows the relative change in rating for Estonia's major political parties, going back to early 2019.

A total of 4,006 Estonian citizens of 18 or over were polled over the perioud July 5 to August 1; Isamaa aggregates its results over a four-week period and presents them on a weekly basis.

Norstat claims an error margin in direct proportion to the size of a party's support – for instance Reform, as the most supported party, has a +/- 1.46 percent margin, compared with +/1 0.87 percent for SDE.

The next election is to the Riigikogu in March 2023.


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Editor: Andrew Whyte

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