While support for Isamaa, one of the parties in the coalition-in-waiting which struck a deal last Friday, is the highest it has been since July 2019, support for most other parties remains unchanged over the past week, according to a recent survey.
The support for the coalition parties came to 49.5 percent combined, the survey, conducted by pollsters Norsat on behalf of conservative think-tank the Institute for the Study of Societal Issues (MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut), found – provisionally Reform, Isamaa and the Social Democrats (SDE) who inked an agreement last Friday but have yet to pass the Riigikogu vote needed to be able to present the new administration to President Alar Karis.
The two parties now in opposition, Center, which had been in a bi-partite coalition with Reform from January 2021 until June this year, and the Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE), polled at 37.3 percent.
Support for Reform, the largest party by Riigikogu seats at 34, and EKRE, the third largest (19 seats) did not change significantly on the previous week, Norstat found.
Reform polled at 33.7 percent, EKRE at 20.6 and Center at 16.7 percent. Center has 26 Riigikogu seats.
Support for Center fell by 1.1 percentage points on the preceding week.
The top three are followed by the non-parliamentary Eesti 200 (10.2 percent), Isamaa, at 8.6 percent, as noted a rating it last enjoyed in July 2019, and SDE on 7.2 percent.
Isamaa's support has risen by 3.8 percentage points since the second half of April.
The graph below shows the relative ratings for the parties above since Norstat started compiling its weekly surveys in January 2019 (Keskerakond = Center, Rohelised = Estonian Greens).
The latest Norstat survey reflects the aggregated period June 7 to July 11 and polled 4,001 Estonian citizens of voting age, with error margins rising in proportion to the size of support a party received, Norstat says.
The next election is to the Riigikogu, on March 5 2023.
Editor: Andrew Whyte