Combined party ratings: Isamaa support rises, Eesti 200's falls

Party logos of the six largest political parties in Estonia.
Party logos of the six largest political parties in Estonia. Source: ERR

Support for current opposition party Isamaa, now locked in talks with the Reform Party and the Social Democrats aimed at forming a new coalition, rose between May and June, while the Center Party arrested a decline in support it had experienced in the preceding months, according to the combined ratings from the three major pollsters in Estonia.

Meanwhile, support for the non-parliamentary Eesti 200 continues to drop.

Support for the ruling Reform Party ran at between 31 and 35 per cent in polls from the three main research companies who conduct such surveys (Kantar EmorTuru-uuringute and Norstat), and remained essentially at the same level (32.5 per cent) as in May. 

While Reform, which has been office alone for two weeks now after Prime Minister Kaja Kallas dismissed the seven Center Party ministers from the cabinet, remains most-supported party even following the coalition break-up, its support has topped-out, after nearly four months' rise, starting from the Russian Federation's invasion of Ukraine on February 24.

The Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE) has similarly seen no significant change in support according to any of the three pollsters, and remains at 18.6 percent.

The table below shows ratings in June for each of the three firms engaged in surveys, along with the combined result (Koondkeskmine). Keskerakond = the Center Party, Rohelised = the Greens).

The Center Party's support level has rallied after an initial decline earlier on in the current Ukraine conflict, and now stands at 16.6 percent as an average across the three companies' data.

The non-parliamentary Eesti 200 has continued to see a fall in support, however, according to all three market research companies' results, from 15.2 percent on average in May, to 12.8 percent this month so far.

Eesti 200 is likely to have lost much of this support to the Reform Party, with which it shares many common viewpoints, at least going both on both parties' public statements.

Of the remainder, Isamaa now polls at 10 percent according to Turu-uuringute, double the 5-percent threshold level required to win seats in a constituency under Estonia's d'Hondt system of proportional representation. The result follows a steady rise in support for the party in recent weeks, now standing at 8.6 percent as an average of the three.

Following the break-up of the Reform-Center administration, the party ended up being able to choose between going into coalition talks with Reform and the Social Democrats (SDE), or with Center and EKRE, choosing the former.

SDE averages at 7.2 percent of support and has thus switched places with Isamaa compared with the picture earlier this year.

The Green Party, which currently is not represented at the Riigikogu, is polling at a little under 2 percent according to the average of the three companies' data.

The bar chart below shows the combined ratings for each party in April, May and June.

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Editor: Andrew Whyte

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