Emor ratings: Support for Isamaa rising, Eesti 200 losing ground

Ratings for Isamaa and Eesti 200 now very close.
Ratings for Isamaa and Eesti 200 now very close. Source: Patrik Tamm/ERR, graphics: J. J. Oidermaa

The biggest change in the polls is that the ratings of the coalition Isamaa party and non-parliamentary Eesti 200 are now very close, recent results of the regular Kantar Emor poll commissioned by ERR reveals. The ratings differed more than three times as recently as April.

The Reform Party remains the most popular with 30 percent of the vote in July, down from 32 percent in June and 33 percent in May.

"Compared to the May high, the Reform Party's rating has come down slightly and moved closer to their long-time average of 28 percent," Kantar Emor survey expert Aivar Voog said.

The poll puts the opposition Conservative People's Party (EKRE) in second place on 18 percent, with the rating unchanged since June. Support for EKRE has hovered around the 17-18 percent mark for the last five months.

The Center Party has the support of 15 percent of respondents in July, good enough for third place.

Non-parliamentary Eesti 200 managed a rating of 13 percent in July, down from 15 percent in June, 17 percent in May and 21 percent in April.

However, Isamaa is gunning for fourth place, now just two points behind Eesti 200 on 11 percent in July.

Voog said that the process of forming the new coalition had a positive effect for Isamaa in the form of media coverage. "The rating of Eesti 200, overshadowed by Riigikogu parties, continues its downward trend," Voog remarked.

The ratings of the two parties differed threefold as recently as in April when Eesti 200 had 21 percent and Isamaa just 7 percent of the vote.

The coalition Social Democratic Party (SDE) managed a rating of 9 percent in July, coming from 8 percent in June.

Aivar Voog suggested that the process of forming the coalition hasn't yet impacted the Social Democrats' rating. "They continue to be the second choice of most of their potential supporters," he said.

The Estonian Greens matched its June rating of 3 percent in July.

Support by voter group

The Reform Party's success was even greater among Estonian voters at 36 percent. EKRE had a rating of 18 percent, Eesti 200 15 percent and Isamaa 12 percent in this voter group. SDE enjoys the support of 9 percent and Center just 7 percent of ethnic Estonian voters.

Non-ethnic Estonians still prefer the Center Party (46 percent), followed by EKRE (14 percent), Reform Party and SDE (10 percent), Eesti 200 (8 percent) and Isamaa (7 percent).

In Tallinn, support was biggest for the ruling Reform Party (28 percent). Center got the votes of 25 percent of Tallinners, Eesti 200 those of 13 percent, with SDE on 9 percent and Isamaa on 8 percent.

The Center Party remains the most popular in Ida-Viru County (32 percent) where EKRE has 20 percent and Eesti 200 18 percent of the vote.

Kantar Emor polled 1,501 voting-age citizens between the ages of 18 and 84 in July 14-20. Half of respondents were interviewed online and half over the phone. The "cannot say" responses have been eliminated from the results so they could be more accurately compared to the situation at Riigikogu elections. The "cannot say" camp comprised 30 percent of voters in July, up from 25 percent in June.


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Editor: Marcus Turovski

Source: Kantar Emor

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