The coalition Social Democratic Party (SDE) has seen its popularity with voters rise since it entered office with Reform and Isamaa last month, and now outstrips the latter party and also the non-parliamentary Eesti 200, according to a recent survey.
The survey, conducted by pollsters Norstat on behalf of conservative think-tank the Institute for Societal Studies (MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut), found that 52.6 percent of respondents – Estonian citizens of a voting age -backed one of the three coalition parties, while 36.1 percent pledged their support for either of the two opposition parties – Center and the Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE).
By party, Reform remains most-supported, polling at 34.4 percent, curiously almost identical to the number of Riigikogu seats (34) the party has.
EKRE came second at 19.8 percent – the party has 19 seats, while the Center party polled at 16.3 percent (Center now has 26 seats in parliament).
These three are followed by the SDE on 9.3 percent, as noted slightly ahead of Isamaa and Eesti 200, who tied on 8.9 percent, according to Norstat.
Reform's support has risen by 1.2 percentage points over the past fortnight, while EKRE's has been largely static over the past month, at 19-20 percent. Center's has also remained at its current level since late February, when the current phase of the conflict in Ukraine began.
SDE support rose by three percentage points since late June, its highest rating since October 2020.
The Estonian Greens polled at 1.5 percent, below the 5 percent needed to win seats in a given constituency, under Estonia's d'Hondt system of proportional representation.
The graph below plots relative party support since Norstat started conducting its surveys in their current form (Key: Keskerakond = Center Party, Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised = Greens).
Norstat aggregates its survey results over four weeks, and the latest poll covers the period July 12-August 8, and took in the opinions of just over 4,000 people.
Norstat claims an error margin in direct proportion to a party's overall support, so for instance the margin for Reform is +/1 1.47 percent, compared with +/- 0.88 percent for Eesti 200.
The next elections are to the Riigikogu, in March 2023.
Editor: Andrew Whyte, Aleksander Krjukov