The in-the-works coalition of the Reform Party, Isamaa and the Social Democratic Party (SDE) is twice as popular among voters than its alternative involving the Center Party, Conservative People's Party (EKRE) and Isamaa, pollster Kantar Emor found. in June.
The Kantar Emor poll commissioned by ERR found that 38 percent of voting-age citizens regard the Reform-Isamaa-SDE coalition as the best possible choice.
The "cannot say" answer was the choice of 24 percent of respondents of the poll that interviewed 1,537 voting-age citizens between 18 and 84 years of age in June 9-14. Half of respondents were interviewed online and half over the phone.
Coming in third was the main alternative to the currently negotiated coalition, an alliance between Center, EKRE and Isamaa, which 19 percent of Estonians would like to see run the country.
Just 8 percent of respondents would have liked to see the recent Reform-Center coalition recreated, with support for a Reform-EKRE alliance even lower at 3 percent.
Another 8 percent would have liked to see an alternative to all of the aforementioned options, while any such combination would be highly unlikely.
Removing the "cannot say" vote
If we remove the "cannot say" option from the answers, leaving only respondents with a clear political preference (as is done when presenting party ratings), 50 percent of voters prefer the incoming Reform-SDE-Isamaa coalition.
Support in this case for the option of Center-EKRE-Isamaa is 25 percent, Reform-Center 11 percent and Reform and EKRE just 4 percent.
Coalition preferences of different parties' voters
Voters of the Reform Party and SDE clearly prefer the currently negotiated coalition with Isamaa at 82 percent and 58 percent respectively.
Isamaa supporters are not in agreement to the same extent, with 42 percent in favor of the Reform-SDE-Isamaa option, while 19 percent would prefer joining Center and EKRE in a coalition.
Center voters rather prefer the latter option (40 percent), while 28 percent of their supporters did not have a coalition preference at all. 23 percent of Center voted would have preferred to retain the recent coalition of Reform and Center.
EKRE supporters clearly prefer a marriage to Center and Isamaa (72 percent), with a coalition with Reform their second preference (11 percent).
Voters of the non-parliamentary Eesti 200 also consider the Reform-Isamaa-SDE coalition to be the best option for Estonia (55 percent). Interestingly, 17 percent of the liberal party's voters did not have a clear coalition preference.
Major national differences
Nationality also affects preferences for the next coalition.
Ethnic Estonians tend to prefer the Reform-Isamaa-SDE coalition (45 percent), even though 21 percent opted for the "cannot say" option.
19 percent of ethnic Estonians would like to see the Center-Isamaa-EKRE coalition.
Among non-ethnic Estonians, 36 percent did not have a clear ruling coalition preference. A coalition between Center, EKRE and Isamaa was the second most popular option.
Older voters tend to have more pronounced preferences
Differences between age groups manifest as younger people opting for the "cannot say" option more often than older voters.
In the 18-34 age group, 30 percent could not pick a preference, that fell to 23 percent in the 35-49 age group, 22 percent in the 50-74 age group and just 16 percent in the 75-84 age group.
Both coalition options become more popular as the respondents' age grows, while the alliance of Reform, Isamaa and SDE is clearly the preferred option.
Editor: Marcus Turovski