The analysis will be completed by the end of February 2027, the chamber announced.

The analysis seeks an answer to the question of which portfolio of production, storage and connection capacities is optimal for Estonia at different consumption levels and what investments this requires.

The Chamber of Commerce and Industry emphasizes that the analysis will be carried out based on the principles of intellectual honesty, freedom from ideology, impartiality and transparency. "All technologies are assessed on the same basis, and the result is not directed by predetermined technological or worldview preferences. All assumptions and constraints affecting the analysis are clearly set out and justified," the chamber's statement says.

The process is structured so that the input and decision‑making rights of companies supporting the project are clearly separated. The companies supporting the project and Elering belong to an advisory council that provides sectoral input and feedback, but does not decide on the assumptions and inputs used in the model. These decisions are made by a steering committee consisting of representatives of the state, academia and the Chamber of Commerce and Industry, which also approves the terms of reference, methodology, input data and constraints.

Public discussion expected

All core elements of the analysis — the terms of reference, methodology, inputs, results and conclusions — will be made public so that public discussion can take place.

Interim results of the project will not be commented on during the analysis. The project results will be presented to the public once the analysis is complete.

The analysis is funded by the companies participating in the project. The project is supported by Eesti Energia/Enefit, Utilitas, Alexela, VKG, Evecon, Baltic Energy Partners, Saare Wind and Fermi Energia, as well as electricity consumers Maag Food and Lemeks. Elering participates in the advisory council as the system operator.

The steering committee includes Einari Kisel (Ministry of Climate), Ahti Kuningas (Ministry of Economic Affairs and Communications), Raoul Lättemäe (Ministry of Finance), Erkki Raasuke (EIS), Evelin Pärn‑Lee (Competition Authority), Jaak Aaviksoo (Estonian Academy of Sciences), Hannes Agabus (TalTech), Ivo Palu (Estonian Electrical Power Engineering Society), Uku Varblane (Foresight Centre), and Mait Palts and Raivo Vasnu (Estonian Chamber of Commerce and Industry).

The project is led by foreign‑investment consultant and former Minister of Entrepreneurship and Foreign Trade Anne Sulling.

The analysis will be completed at the end of February 2027, before the parliamentary elections, so that the results can be used by the new government in shaping energy‑policy decisions.

The initiative grew out of a report published in April 2026 by Anne Sulling and Erkki Raasuke, which examined under what conditions international investors would be willing to invest in large energy‑infrastructure projects in Estonia.

One of the report's central recommendations was to calculate the optimal portfolio of electricity production, storage and external connections for Estonia, in order to provide the state with an analytical basis and investors with the necessary foresight.

Elering is conducting a separate study

At the same time, Elering and Tallinn University of Technology have begun preparing future scenarios for Estonia's energy system, in order to assess the impact of different energy‑policy and technological choices on electricity prices and security of supply. This analysis will be completed by the end of 2027.

In the course of the work, Elering will create an electricity‑market model that compares possible development paths for Estonia's energy system up to 2050. The model should help assess how different choices affect electricity prices and system reliability. Tallinn University of Technology will prepare European energy‑system development trajectories and possible scenarios for Estonia.

The analysis will take into account network tariffs, the renewable‑energy charge, the cost of ensuring security of supply, the cost of balancing the system, and the need to reinforce electricity and gas networks up to 2050. The analysis does not include possible changes to state taxes and excise duties.

Elering is conducting the analysis as an independent system operator.

Scenario development and consultations will begin in autumn 2026. European development trajectories and Estonian scenarios will be discussed with stakeholders from September 2026 to February 2027. The scenarios to be modelled will be approved in February 2027, and the report on competitive energy prices will be completed by the end of 2027.

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