Expert: Estonian offshore wind farms would not have critical impact on Sweden
Sweden's decision to stop the development of offshore wind farms was because the authorities did not have enough information on how they might advance warning systems, according Hans Liwang, professor in systems science for defense at the Swedish Defense University. According to Liwang, the offshore wind farms planned for Estonia would not have a critical impact on Sweden.
A glance at the map shows how many offshore wind farms Sweden has taken off the agenda. Hans Liwang, professor in systems science for defense at the Swedish Defense University, said the decision was primarily due to uncertainty – it is not known exactly how the wind turbines might affect the defensive warning systems.
"There is uncertainty about the impact on national defense. And there are also certain adverse effects on defense. At the same time, in Sweden, including among the Defense Forces, there has also been debate about the positive effects. However, more information is needed," Liwang said.
To what extent could the planned Estonian offshore wind farms affect Swedish monitoring equipment? According to Hiwang, the Swedish government based its decision primarily on the potential threat closer to home, from Kaliningrad for instance.
"I don't really see the development in Estonia having such a critical impact on Swedish defense, because Sweden's focus is not on Estonian territory. When it comes to threats to the east of Estonia, Estonia has sensors that support Swedish defense or NATO," Liwang said.
To what extent can Estonian censors always be relied on? Last week, Col. Ants Kiviselg, head of the Estonian Defense Forces (EDF) Intelligence Center, gave an example of how early warning in the region failed to work as well as it should have.
"A drone that was launched against a Ukrainian target ended up on Latvian territory. In the case of wind farms that reduce our detection capacity, the early warning time is also shorter. A drone like this, which is not aimed against Estonia, may end up crossing border and the detection of this type of a drone would be inhibited," Col. Kiviselg said.
Sweden abandoned most of its offshore wind farms for defense reasons. However, Hans Liwang believes that the decision will not last forever.
"I believed they took a step that will remove uncertainty in this area for a number of years. But in the long term, this kind of a categorical refusal cannot work. Balanced solutions are needed for the future. The positive and negative effects have to be balanced," he said.
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