The latest episode of the "Baltic Ways" podcast looked at how the Baltic states have reacted to the second Trump administration. It also touched on the diaspora communities in the USA and their historic support for the Republican Party.

"The basic line, I think, is that Baltic Americans have failed Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania," said Professor Andres Kasekamp, chair of Estonian Studies at the University of Toronto.

"Which is kind of natural, as they are American citizens voting primarily for American issues. So, Baltic Americans are mostly republicans and they are probably mostly anti-immigrant – or at least think immigration is out of control – they're for lower taxes, and get caught up in the culture war stuff, they don't like wokeness and have a tradition of voting for Republicans. They just didn't give any thought to the countries from where they originated and their fate under the Trump administration."

Kasekamp said Trump has been "very obvious" in his admiration for Russian leader Vladimir Putin.

"That's the one thing that has been very consistent about Trump, everything else has flip-flopped and can change, but he never says a bad word about Putin," he said.

The diaspora also believes the rhetoric that because Trump is a "strong man," Putin will respect him. "They are just being played, as is Trump, of course, by Putin," the professor said.

Professor Daunis Auers from the University of Latvia said the Baltic diaspora is traditionally pro-Republican because of its anti-communist stance. But now the Latvian diaspora is having to do "intellectual gymnastics" to try and argue that Trump is good for both America and Baltic security.

Vilnius University's Professor Margarita Šešelgytė said Baltic Americans likely did not think about foreign policy when voting for Trump.

However, she added that these communities may turn away from the president over his Ukraine policy or the dismantling of American institutions. "There are a lot of factors that could decrease this support," she said.

"Shock therapy"

Looking at the reaction to Trump's policies towards the region, such as the turn away from the Transatlantic alliance and reduced support for Ukraine, Auers said Estonia and Latvia are saying one thing, but doing another.

"On the one hand, we have this air of confidence that nothing has changed, that America is our ally. But if you look at the actions underneath, there are certain preparations taking place for the possibility of a different defense order in Europe in the near future," he said.

Šešelgyte said there has been some "shock therapy" across the three countries, which have always said defending themselves is impossible without the presence of the USA in the region. It has also been difficult to see Trump appear to side with Putin.

"We have to reconsider who we are security-wise," she said. "There is a certain degree of chaos, and it's not surprising because our security was based on the belief of collective defense guaranteed by NATO and above all by the United States."

Kasekamp said in, in public, Baltic officials are trying to put a "good face" on the situation. They agree with Trump that European defense spending should rise. The "silver lining" is that it is now starting to.

"If we take Trump at his word – which we never should do – the Baltic states shouldn't worry because they are all spending over the NATO requirement," he said.

However, the professor said the amount spent on defense matters less than whether Moscow believes Washington would support the Baltics if anything were to happen.

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