Member of the Riigikogu, retired Lt. Col. Leo Kunnas said that Estonia's preparations for war need to be enough to convince the enemy not to attack.
"Those prepared for war are seldom attacked. And if President Putin, Defense Minister Shoigu and the Russian general staff do not believe [in our deterrence] it makes no difference whether we do," Kunnas told daily Eesti Päevaleht in an interview (link in Estonian).
Kunnas said that Ukraine made two crucial mistakes in forming a defense force that was too small and failing to demonstrate its preparations. "The first major escalation took place in the spring of 2021 when Russian started amassing its troops on the border. Ukraine declared mobilization when the war had already started," Kunnas told the paper.
The Conservative People's Party (EKRE) MP regards four scenarios to be likely in the case of Estonia. "The first is that there will be no war because our and allied preparedness is sufficient and sufficiently visible to convince Russia it cannot win. The second scenario is that there will be war but we will manage to maintain the status quo as Russia will not win. In the third, Estonia does not manage to maintain the status quo and will lose a part of its territory or the war. And fourthly, war escalating to nuclear war," Kunnas offered.
Editor: Marcus Turovski
Source: Eesti Päevaleht