The research, conducted by pollsters Norstat and commissioned by conservative think-tank the Institute for Societal Studies (MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut), found that 46.2 percent of respondents said they would vote for one of the three coalition parties, the Reform Party, Isamaa or the Social Democrats (SDE), while 40.4 percent would choose either of the two opposition parties – the Center Party or the Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE).

Undecided respondents or those who picked one of the parties currently not represented at the Riigikogu – Eesti 200, the Estonian Greens or Parempoolsed – make up the balance.

By party, Reform remains most supported, polling at 32.1 percent, followed by EKRE on 24.5 percent. Both party's support were practically the same as at the end of 2022.

The Center Party's rating was 15.9 percent, up on 15.5 percent at year end, and Eesti 200's stood at 9.5 percent (a slight fall on the 9.8 percent posted at the end of 2022).

Ismaa polled at 7.2 percent (down slightly from 7.4 percent at the end of the year), SDE, 6.9 percent (up from 6.7 percent), the Estonian Greens at 1.9 percent and Parempoolsed at 0.7 percent (both virtually unchanged on year-end 2022).

The graph below illustrates the relative changes in party support levels since Norstat started compiling its surveys in their current format (Key: Yellow = Reform, green = Center, black = EKRE, royal blue = Isamaa, red = SDE, light blue = Eesti 200, light green = Estonian Greens, orange = Parempoolsed).

Norstat conducts its surveys on a weekly basis, aggregated over four weeks – in this case from December 6, 2022 to January 9, 2023.

Just over 4,000 Estonian citizens of voting age were questioned.
Polling day at the Riigikogu elections is March 5, preceded by several days' advance voting, leaving six full weeks until the elections.

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