No major changes have been seen in the support rating of Estonia's major political parties over the last full week of the year, according to a recent survey. The Reform Party and the Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE) have seen small drops in support, while Isamaa has seen a rise.
A total of 46.1 percent of respondents to the survey, compiled by market research firm Norstat on behalf of conservative think-tank the Institute for Societal Studies (MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut), picked one of the three coalition parties – the Reform Party, Isamaa, or the Social Democrats (SDE).
40.1 percent of respondents pledged for either of the two opposition parties, the Center Party or the Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE), Norstat says.
The remainder would have supported a non-parliamentary party, or been uncommitted.
By party, Reform received 32.0 percent of support, followed by EKRE on 24.6 percent, and Center on 15.5 percent.
Reform's support fell slightly on week, from 32.8 percent, and EKRE's by an even smaller margin, from 25.0 percent the previous week.
Center's support level has remained static for several weeks, Norstat says.
Isamaa's rating was 7.4 percent, up from 6.9 percent a week earlier, and SDE also saw a rise on week, albeit a smaller one, to 6.7 percent (from 6.6 percent).
The non-parliamentary Eesti 200 party polled at 9.8 percent, compared with 9.7 percent earlier. The party has been seeing a rise in support in recent weeks.
Two other non-parliamentary parties, the Estonian Greens (Rohelised) and Parempoolsed, polled at 1.8 percent and 0.8 percent respectively.
Under Estonia's modified d'Hondt system of proportional representation, a minimum of 5 percent of support is required to win seats in a given electoral district, in an Estonian election.
Norstat compiles its surveys on a weekly basis and aggregates them over a four-week period. The latest survey covers the period November 29 to December 27, and polled just over 4,000 Estonian citizens of voting age.
The line graph below shows the relative changes in party support levels since Norstat started compiling its surveys in their current format, four years ago (Key: Yellow = Reform, green = Center, black = EKRE, royal blue = Isamaa, red = SDE, light blue = Eesti 200, light green = Estonian Greens), while the tables following show the aggregate four-week ratings, and the weekly ratings.
The next election is to the Riigikogu, on Sunday, March 5, 2023, preceded by several days' advance voting period. Only Estonian citizens may vote in a general election.
Editor: Andrew Whyte, Merili Nael
Source: Norstat, Institute for Societal Studies