EKRE voters most loyal, SDE and Eesti 200 backers ficklest
Even though support for opposition leader the Conservative People's Party (EKRE) has fallen over the last two months, their current voters are the most entrenched, the recent Kantar Emor poll found. At the same time, a quarter of Social Democratic Party (SDE) and a third of Eesti 200 supporters are unsure of their choice.
Of those who plan to vote for the Conservative People's Party (EKRE) in the March elections, 66 percent are "completely sure" of their choice and 26 percent "rather sure." Just 8 percent of EKRE backers are not sure in their preference. This means that while the party's rating dropped to 18 percent December, from 25 percent in October, it has nowhere further to fall.
With EKRE voters the most entrenched, the next group is made up of the Center Party, Isamaa and Reform Party around half of the voters of which are completely sure of their choice.
The exact figures come to 48 percent "completely sure" and 32 percent "rather sure" for Center, 47 and 34 percent for Isamaa and 45 and 42 percent for Reform.
Things aren't nearly as ironclad for the Social Democratic Party (SDE) and Eesti 200, with just a quarter or less of current backers sure of their favorite.
Of SDE backers, 22 percent are "completely sure" and 54 percent "rather sure." 24 percent of SDE voters are not sure of their current preference, meaning that a quarter of the party's votes might simply melt away. Considering SDE's modest rating (9 percent), this is a problem for the coalition party.
The situation is more or less the same for non-parliamentary Eesti 200, with 25 percent of their supporters "completely sure" and 44 percent "rather sure." In other words, 31 percent of those who say they support the political newcomers aren't really sure. That said, Eesti 200 sports a better rating than SDE at 14 percent.
Kantar Emor also asked people which parties they would also consider voting for. Looking at the two parties with the least sure supporters, potential SDE voters would also back the Greens, Eesti 200 and Reform, while Eesti 200 supporters would consider the Greens, SDE and Reform.
Reform Party voters would entertain the thought of supporting the Greens, Eesti 200 and SDE.
EKRE or Isamaa voters would rather back the competing conservative force, even though Isamaa voters also entertain the thought of choosing SDE or Reform, while some EKRE backers would also vote for Center.
Center Party voters might consider voting for SDE, EKRE and the Greens.
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Editor: Urmet Kook, Marcus Turovski