Russia is trying to create fear not only in Ukraine but also among Ukraine's allies, attempting to weaken Europe's willingness to continue supporting Ukraine, Raik noted.

"And it constantly looks for new means to do so, because things are not going well for Russia in the war right now. That is why they have begun taking more risks, escalating in the hope that Europe is not ready to adopt stronger countermeasures. And in that sense, unfortunately, they are right — the countermeasures by European states have so far been quite weak," she said.

It cannot be said that Western countries have taken no countermeasures at all, but these remain weaker than expected, Raik added, pointing for example to Germany's reaction to the incident at Leipzig‑Halle Airport.

"It is very important that support for Ukraine continues, that there is no sign Russia can achieve through its attacks that we would somehow become afraid of supporting Ukraine. On the contrary, this is precisely the critical moment when everything must be done to help strengthen Ukraine's air defense and tighten sanctions against Russia — and there are still many options that have not yet been dared to use," she said.

At the Arctic meeting in Rovaniemi, Friedrich Merz and Donald Tusk warned of decisive moments in the coming weeks. According to Raik, the warning referred to Russia planning further attacks in Europe.

"Understandably, the countries whose support is most important for Ukraine — led by Germany — are the main targets. In Western Europe, people tend to think the Baltic states are the primary target, but recently that has not been the case, and I think the ground for Russian influence operations is unfortunately more favorable in Germany or France than in the Baltic states," Raik said.

At the same time, U.S. President Donald Trump has not done anything significant to pressure Russia, although at times his attitude toward Ukraine has become more positive, she noted.

Asked whether the main problem in U.S.‑mediated talks is that Washington wants peace much more than Moscow — and that Moscow does not actually want peace at all — Raik replied that at present this can indeed be said.

"Having been to Ukraine myself, I can say that no one in Ukraine believes the war will end before next spring. On the contrary, Russia is attacking more forcefully, and Putin's assumption remains that they can endure longer. And I do not consider it likely at all that Putin personally would ever seek to conclude any peace agreement with Ukraine," Raik said.

"He still cannot achieve the goals he has set for himself in Ukraine. So from his perspective, the only alternative is to continue the war — perhaps at best to limit military activity at some point if it becomes too costly and too dangerous for Russia," she added.

The ICDS is the leading think-tank in Estonia specialising in security, defense and foreign policy issues.

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