Support for the Reform Party has declined over the past week, while the Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE) has seen an even larger drop in ratings, according to a recent survey.
A total of 46.7 percent of respondents to the weekly Norstat poll, commissioned by the Institute for Societal Studies (MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut), supported one of the three coalition partners, Reform, the Social Democrats (SDE) or Isamaa, Norstat says.
39.4 percent supported one of the two opposition parties – EKRE or the Center Party.
Respondents who picked a non-parliamentary party, or answered "don't know", made up the balance.
Were the March 5 Riigikogu elections to be held right now, according to Norstat, the ratings would translate into 36 seats for Reform, 25 for EKRE, 17 for Center, 10 for non-parliamentary party Eesti 200, seven for SDE and six for Isamaa.
This would represent an increase of two seats for Reform and of four for EKRE, with losses for all the other parties apart from Eesti 200, who would be entering the Riigikogu for the first time ever.
By party, Norstat's latest poll puts 31.8 percent of respondents choosing Reform, a slight fall on the previous week, and 22.8 percent supporting EKRE, a 1.7 percentage point decline on the previous week.
This also brings the gap between the prime minister's party, Reform, and EKRE, to 9 percentage points.
The Center Party's support rose, conversely, over a two-week period, by 1.1 percentage points, to 16.6 percent of respondents to the latest survey.
The gap between Center, party of Riigikogu speaker Jüri Ratas, and EKRE, is now a little over 6 percent.
Eesti 200 polled at 10 percent, SDE at 7.7 percent and Isamaa at 7.2 percent. SDE have now overtaken Isamaa in Norstat's estimation, gaining 1.5 percentage points over the past four weeks.
The other political parties, namely the Estonian Greens, Parempoolsed and TULE, polled below the 5 percent threshold required to win seats in a given electoral district, under Estonia's d'Hondt system of proportional representation.
The line graph below shows relative changes in party support levels since Norstat started compiling its surveys in their current format, in early 2019. (Key: Yellow = Reform, green = Center, black = EKRE, royal blue = Isamaa, red = SDE, light blue = Eesti 200, light green = Estonian Greens, orange = Parempoolsed).
Norstat conducts its polls on a weekly basis and aggregates them over a four-week period. The latest aggregate results reflect the period December 13, 2022 to January 16, 2023. Just over 4,000 Estonian citizens of voting age were polled.
The Riigikogu elections take place on Sunday, March 5, preceded by an advance voting period which begins February 27. Votes can be cast either in-person at a polling booth or electronically, during the advance period.
Editor: Andrew Whyte, Mirjam Mäekivi