The last monthly poll of 2024 from Kantar Emor, commissioned by ERR, found the opposition party had a rating of 27 percent.

Isamaa has topped Kantar Emor's surveys since November 2023, with support ranging from 22 to 28 percent during that period.

Over the past month, Isamaa's rating rose from 24 percent in November to 27 percent this month as noted; the largest change among all the political parties as well as the largest absolute rating.

The coalition Reform Party remains in second place at 18 percent support. The prime minister's party's support has been around this level since August, and has fluctuated between the 15- and 19-percent-mark throughout the year.

Next comes the opposition Center Party, the coalition Social Democratic Party (SDE), and the opposition Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE). The three parties are practically neck-and-neck with each other.

This month, Center polled at 14 percent, SDE at 13 percent and EKRE at 12 percent.

Over the year, Center's rating has remained relatively stable, and has ranged from 12 to 15 percent.

SDE's support was higher in the first half of the year (at 17-18 percent) but has seen a steady decline since September.

The 13 percent posted this month was SDE's poorest result in 2024.

EKRE's rating is also significantly lower than it was at the start of the year (cf. 17 percent in January and now 12 percent this month).

At the same time, it has emerged from the trough seen during its "night of the long knives" in mid-summer – during which time several prominent members left or were ejected – and the low for the year of 10 percent, posted in August.

Among the Riigikogu parties, Eesti 200 still has the lowest support, with 4 percent in this month's poll.

Eesti 200, which changed its leader at the end of summer, has been laboring below the electoral threshold – the 5 percent of the vote required to win seats – since June.

Support for the non-parliamentary Parempoolsed has remained stable at around 6 percent over the past three months.

The Estonian Nationalists and Conservatives (ERK), formed by around a nucleus of former EKRE members who left in summer, picked up 3 percent support in December, while the Greens (Rohelised) polled at 2 percent, the pro-Kremlin KOOS/Vmeste party at 1 percent.

The combined support for the three coalition parties, Reform, SDE and Eesti 200, was 34 percent in December, compared with 53 percent for the three represented opposition parties: Isamaa, Center and EKRE, according to Kantar Emor.

Ratings including "can't say" respondents

In December, 29 percent of respondents said they could not state their preference.

The above data excludes these respondents.

Including them in the results however gives Isamaa a 19-percent rating, Reform a 12-percent one and sees SDE poll at 10 percent.

Center and EKRE both poll at 9 percent on this basis; Parempoolsed at 5 percent and Eesti 200 at just 3 percent.

Ratings by demographic

Among native Estonian-speaking respondents, Isamaa polled even higher, at 32 percent. The Reform Party, too, saw its results improve when confined to this section of the populace, with a rating of 20 percent, whereas SDE (14 percent) and EKRE (13 percent) results were largely unchanged when viewed through this prism. The same can be said of Eesti 200 (4 percent) and the ERK (also 4 percent).

Parempoolsed on the other hand did even better among Estonian-only respondents, at 7 percent, as did the Greens, at 3 percent.

Conversely, Center only polled at 4 percent among native Estonian-speaking respondents to the Kantar Emor survey.

Among non-native Estonian-speaking respondents, which in practice means Russian native-speaking citizens of Estonia, the Center Party polled much, much better, at 54 percent support – this demographic has long been Center's bedrock even as it has been eroded in more recent years.

The socially liberal SDE and the socially conservative EKRE both polled at 11 percent among non-Estonian respondents to the survey.

Twenty-four percent of Kantar Emor respondents in one of Center's two regional bedrocks, Tallinn (the other being Ida-Viru County) picked that party, though Reform and Isamaa both performed well in the capital too – at 19 percent each.

SDE had a 14 percent rating in Tallinn.

The remaining parties were all in the single-digits, with Parempoolsed at 9 percent, EKRE at 8 percent and Eesti 200 right on the threshold at 5 percent.

Tallinn city government currently consists of Reform, Isamaa, SDE and Eesti 200.

The next elections in Estonia are in October 2025, to the 79 local municipalities.

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