Two of Estonia's largest political parties are entering this election year from an unusual position, political scientist Martin Mölder said. The Reform Party has not lagged so consistently behind another party for such a long period in at least 20 years. Meanwhile, the Center Party's support is at its lowest in roughly 30 years, while Isamaa's support is at a record high.

"The Center Party is putting all of its resources into trying to boost its support. And Isamaa, for its part, is experiencing a great deal of anticipation, because the support they currently have largely fell into their lap due to voter dissatisfaction with the Reform Party. They haven't necessarily done that much to earn this level of support themselves. Now, the big question for them is: How much of that support can we hold onto for the local elections this fall and beyond?" Mölder explained.

Tarmo Jüristo, founder of the Liberal Citizen Foundation (SALK), believes the elections will soon begin to cause greater tensions within the government.

"Elections, whether in Estonia or anywhere else, are a zero-sum game – every vote, mandate or position someone else wins is one you don't. That means every party has a strong motivation to pull the blanket to their side, which might not be great for the coalition's internal working climate," Jüristo said.

The Social Democrats have already begun to tug at that blanket a bit.

"Riding the wave of their recent surge, the Social Democrats seemed to have taken a big bite of lion chocolate – at one point, it almost looked like they were aiming to run in the next elections with ambitions of becoming the prime minister's party. There's still a way to go before that becomes realistic, though. We'll see how it goes," Jüristo added.

"But perhaps the most noteworthy thing for the coalition to watch next year is the situation with Eesti 200, which is currently in a bit of a zombie-like state. As the elections approach, they may find themselves with a strong motivation to finally step out of the much-discussed shadow of the Reform Party," he said.

According to Mölder, Eesti 200's rhetoric gives the impression that they aren't even trying to fight for the elections.

"There are already signs that, on some level, the party has been contemplating ways to merge with other parties or even end its independent existence. I've also heard suggestions that it wouldn't be a problem if Eesti 200's current Riigikogu members were left without jobs after the next elections because they could simply return to their previous careers. None of that suggests a readiness to fight another major political battle," Mölder noted.

Adding further complexity to the mix is the issue of voting rights, which politicians are trying to address by amending the Constitution before the October elections. Ahead of the last Riigikogu elections, SALK's research showed that the issue of voting rights for non-citizens was largely irrelevant to Russian-speaking voters.

"I haven't seen any new data on this, and I haven't conducted such surveys myself, but I suspect that's no longer the case today. There are several indications that Russian-speaking voters have now engaged with this issue, which is not necessarily something anyone would have wished for or expected," Jüristo said.

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