In November, the Riigikogu passed the first reading of a bill proposed by the coalition parties, which would preserve local election voting rights not only for Estonian citizens but also for NATO and European Union citizens, as well as stateless individuals. Eesti 200 and the Reform Party had aimed to strip voting rights from people holding alien's or so-called gray passports, but the Social Democrats opposed this.

Over the past couple of months, the balance of power on the issue has remained largely unchanged. The Center Party is fundamentally against any restrictions on voting rights. Meanwhile, EKRE opposes any constitutional amendment that would strip voting rights from third-country nationals but allow stateless individuals to keep theirs. Together, the two factions have 18 votes.

This is significant, as 21 votes in the Riigikogu are enough to block an expedited constitutional amendment.

"My calculations and intelligence suggest that the blocking votes are already in place. This means the coalition will have to make a decision," said EKRE leader Martin Helme.

The second reading of the bill, where the final wording will be determined, can take place no earlier than February 20. After that, there will be a one-month waiting period before deciding on the bill's urgency, and only then can the final vote on amending the Constitution take place.

Amendments to the bill can be submitted until January 20. So far, 23 Riigikogu members have submitted a joint amendment proposal advocating for voting rights to be reserved for Estonian citizens only. In addition to current and former EKRE members, members of the Isamaa Party also signed the proposal.

"Our clear position is that voting rights in local elections should be limited to Estonian citizens permanently residing in the Republic of Estonia," said Isamaa chief whip Helir-Valdor Seeder.

He added that, under the Lisbon Treaty, European Union citizens will retain voting rights in any case. However, Isamaa does not support the idea of extending voting rights to NATO citizens, as like-minded countries exist outside NATO as well.

Isamaa is also opposed to allowing stateless individuals to retain voting rights. However, when asked whether Isamaa is prepared to block the expedited constitutional amendment over this issue, Seeder chose a more cautious tone.

"The entire responsibility and decision-making authority is currently in the hands of the prime minister, that is, the Reform Party," he said. "They have a sufficiently large representation in the Riigikogu to make the choice about which path to take." He also pointed out that the Constitution could be amended without the Social Democrats' support.

Laanet and Terras: We will discuss a transitional period for stateless persons

Although Isamaa is not drawing any red lines, the Reform Party and Eesti 200 must consider that Martin Helme may be right — if voting rights for stateless individuals remain in the bill, the entire initiative could fail.

Kalle Laanet, a Reform Party member of the Riigikogu Constitutional Committee, believes that voting rights should be revoked from stateless individuals.

"It is logical that the organization of our local affairs should involve citizens of the Republic of Estonia and citizens of member states that share the same values," Laanet said.

Toomas Uibo, head of the Eesti 200 parliamentary group, confirmed that his party agrees. However, he stressed the importance of taking the Social Democrats' stance into account. "This is where the decision lies — is it better to have a bird in the hand or two in the bush?" Uibo said, adding that Eesti 200's approach is to not bypass their coalition partner. According to him, the party is not deterred by the risk that the opposition might block the proposed changes.

"When the time comes to vote, we'll see. But I personally feel it would be incredibly difficult, even for Isamaa, to vote against removing voting rights from citizens of aggressor states," Uibo said. "I can't imagine that happening, but anything is possible in politics. We'll see."

While Uibo believes that the bill will not undergo any major changes, Laanet is less certain. He said that different options are still being discussed within the coalition. In his view, there is still room to consider removing voting rights from stateless individuals.

"The question is when exactly this right will be revoked," Laanet said, describing the ongoing discussions. "Will it be immediately after the constitutional amendment takes effect, or will there be a sunset clause that phases out their voting rights over time? These are still open topics for debate."

Hendrik Terras, deputy chair of Eesti 200 and head of the Constitutional Committee, also mentioned discussions about a possible transition period. "For instance, people holding gray passports could still vote in 2025, but not in 2029," Terras explained.

He noted that so far, this idea has mainly been discussed with Reform Party members. The Eesti 200 leadership is likely to review the matter on Tuesday. Terras emphasized that before the idea can be turned into an official amendment proposal, it must be discussed within the coalition council. In other words, the Social Democrats will not be bypassed.

The Social Democrats hoping agreements will hold

Eduard Odinets, representing the Social Democrats on the Riigikogu Constitutional Committee, hopes that coalition partners will stick to the agreement made in the fall, which leaves the voting rights of stateless individuals untouched. "It's hard for me to imagine that this will be reversed now," Odinets said.

As mentioned, the deadline for submitting amendment proposals is two weeks away. However, there is nothing preventing changes to the bill later on, as there is still a significant amount of time before the second reading.

It seems likely that coalition MPs will present some form of amendment package regardless. For example, the Ministry of Justice has suggested that there is no point in keeping a provision in the bill stating that "the conditions for including stateless persons and eligible foreign voters in electoral lists are set by law."

Odinets believes that before specific amendment proposals are drafted, the Constitutional Committee will hold several more meetings. So far, the committee has heard from representatives of the Internal Security Service (ISS), constitutional law experts, the electoral commission and members of the constitutional assembly.

Kalle Laanet stressed that any amendments to the bill should ideally be supported by as many Riigikogu members as possible. "Amending the Constitution is a broad-based process and requires the involvement of a large number of MPs," Laanet said.

Hendrik Terras echoed this sentiment, stating, "When amending the Constitution, it's important to find a compromise that has the broadest possible support."

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