New Geopolitics Research Network think tank analyst Mykhailo Samus said the deal helps to crystallize standing points.

"For Ukraine, this means that Trump can no longer claim that Ukraine does not want peace, but that Russia does. That it is difficult to communicate with Ukraine but easier with Russia. That Zelenskyy does not want to reach an agreement, but Russia supposedly does. Right now, the situation is quite the reverse," Samus said.

Kharkiv National University of Economics Professor Dmytro Shyyan said the deal is something of a stalking horse.

"The key thing is that Donald Trump raised the mineral agreement as a shield and made it clear that until this issue is resolved, everything else will take a back seat. [As if] Ukraine has raised a barrier on this issue, and we hope that we can now move forward," Shyyan said.

How the U.S.-Ukraine minerals agreement will function is unclear.
Ukraine Security and Cooperation Center executive director Dmytro Zhmailo noted a precedent in Afghanistan, which never came to fruition.

He said: "There is still a long road to the agreement's implementation. In 2018, Donald Trump signed a similar deal with Afghanistan. The terms of that agreement were very strict, and Afghanistan would have ended up owing a great deal to the U.S., but it was never implemented."

Shyyan questioned how the deal could work while the war is ongoing.

"The agreement also bears a high risk. Ukraine actually does not have very much lithium and other rare earth metals. Most of our lithium is found in the Donetsk region, but there is currently a war going on there. Restoring the mining zone would take several years and would still remain a big question mark. At the moment, there is no visible wait line of those wanting to mine mineral resources in Ukraine," he noted.

The mineral deal provides no security guarantee, neither for Ukraine nor for potential American investors. Trump, however, claims he is representing the interests of American businessmen.

Zhmailo noted that the U.S. recently declined to sell MIM-104 Patriot missile systems to Ukraine.

He said: "Trump does not want to give us Patriot air defense systems, neither for free nor for money. Our president has already suggested how to implement this agreement. If you want to invest in the Motor-Sich aircraft engine factory, put a Patriot system in the yard, to protect the plant. But mining rare earth metals would need a lot of money, weaponry, and powerful air defense."

Ukraine is still receiving military aid from the U.S. under agreements signed during Joe Biden's term. But hope for new arms deliveries remains.

Samus said: "It has been hinted that something is coming. We have been promised instructors for F-16 pilots. There has also been talk that under the pending mineral agreement fund, military aid will arrive, that the U.S. contribution to the fund will be in the form of weaponry. That sounds good," said.

Russian leader Vladimir Putin proposed a three-day ceasefire to coincide with May 9, Russian "Victory Day," marking the end of World War Two. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy instead demanded a 30-day ceasefire, which, according to experts, is unlikely to materialize soon.

Zhmailo said: "Even if a 30-day ceasefire were agreed on now, it would not come about immediately. It would require at least a couple of weeks of preparation. Someone would also need to monitor and check the ceasefire. We have the experience of the two Minsk accords, when the front line never remained unchanged, even for one moment."

Samus said: "If Russia really wanted to stop the exchange of fire, it would stop it. We have been ready for that for a long time. If the exchange of fire stopped, negotiations could begin, which could last for years. Of course, none of that suits Putin. He wants a situation where negotiations drag on for years but fighting continues at the same time. That kind of scenario would please him the most."

Ukraine faces major obstacles to resource development — including conflict in mineral-rich eastern regions, outdated Soviet-era geological data, and a war-damaged power grid — making investment risky and large-scale mining currently non-viable even for eager companies. The agreement gives Ukraine full ownership over its resources and equal fund management with the U.S., with revenues from new (not existing) projects going to a jointly run Reconstruction Fund backed by the U.S. The agreement, however, lacks formal security guarantees and could serve more as a model for future U.S. mineral diplomacy elsewhere.

Following the deal's signing last Wednesday, the Trump administration said it was stepping back as mediator in the war.

Some defense experts have said the U.S. won't send Patriot systems to Ukraine as they require 90 U.S. troops to operate plus months of training, and more familiar systems like S-300s might be better suited.

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